September 9, 2026. Is Now the Time to Buy in Denver? The August Numbers. Closings fell 12%, prices held, and a 60 to 90 day window just opened for buyers.

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August numbers are out, and I think this is the most pivotal stretch of the year for the Denver market. Closings dropped, prices held, and the inventory is still sitting there. You are going to see headlines this week saying Denver prices fell 10% in a month. Here is what the numbers actually say, and why the next 60 to 90 days matter if you have been thinking about buying.

What the Headlines Say vs What the MLS Says

Why closings are down 12% without a crash

Everybody is jumping on the closed sales number. Last August we closed almost 6,200 homes across the metro. This August it was 5,400. But those missing closings are not foreclosures or short sales. Right now 25 to 30% of homes that go under contract end up back on the market, usually over inspection or a seller who will not move off an asking price they do not have to move off of, because they are sitting on a 3% rate. Actives are flat year over year while we sell 12% fewer homes, so the inventory keeps stacking. That is not a crash. That is a standoff, and standoffs favor the side with fewer people in line.

The 60 to 90 day buyer window

Denver inventory runs on a calendar. May, June and July are the peak, August dips a little, then October fades and November drops about 15%. December drops another 20%. Last year we went from roughly 27,000 homes on the market down to 17,000. September and October are the sweet spot where the houses are still there but the buyers are not, and closings fall off harder than inventory does. If you are buying in that window, you have room to ask for seller concessions and to come in 2, 3, 5, even 10% under asking depending on how long a home has been sitting and what the comps say. Yes, rates are at 6.77%. You can pick higher prices or higher rates, and only one of those you can refinance out of later.

The 1% rule that explains the whole market

Every time rates climb 1%, buyers lose about 10% of their purchasing power. If you were approved around 6% a few months ago and shopping at $600,000, at 6.75% you are now looking at $550,000. Nobody wants to shop down a bracket after they have started falling in love with houses, so they sit on the sidelines, sellers pull their listings, homes expire, and the wheel keeps turning. That is why rate moves hit closings so hard, and why the buyers who stay in the game right now are dealing with very little competition.

If you are selling this fall

The homes that sold 3, 6 or 12 months ago are not setting your price anymore. Your active competition is. Buyers look at comps, but they look harder at what else is for sale right now, and if your price and condition do not make you the obvious next one to sell, you sit for another 30 days in a neighborhood that might only have a couple of buyers a month. About half of Denver listings have already taken a price cut. If you want to know how long it would actually take to sell your place based on what is competing against you today, send me your address and I will run the absorption rate for your neighborhood.

Bottom line: Prices are flat, distress is basically nonexistent, and closings are down because deals are falling apart, not because Denver is falling apart. For the next 60 to 90 days the inventory is still here and most of the buyers are not. That is the window. I walk through every chart in the video above.

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Quick question, and just hit reply: are you a buyer eyeing this fall window, or an owner who wants to know how fast your neighborhood is actually selling right now?