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Denver Metro Real Estate Market Update

[0:00] is your Denver home worth more or less than it was just a few months ago well it's the beginning of September and you know what that means August numbers are out and we're going to do what we do every single month we're going to dig into what's going on in the Denver market so you know what's going on with your biggest asset your biggest investment year home election season things are getting a little nutty out there election years tend to be slower than a normal year we see this trend every single four years we can set our watch to it but what's going on this year cuz with interest rates just taking a little bit of a dip is that balancing things out more are people getting freaked out and then you have news articles like these Venezuelan gangs taking over apartment complexes in Aurora you got a lot of fear going on what's the truth behind this stuff but we're going to just look at the numbers right that's what guides me on everything is purely what the numbers are doing and if you're new here welcome my name is Alex San I've been a local Denver agent since 2010 and I really try to let the numbers guide my decision-making process whether that's buying for myself and my family we do flip a lot of houses as well so we tend to look at things from a number perspective but if you have any questions just feel free shoot me a text message give me a phone call I'm happy to chat with you or if you want to sign up for my email list you can just scan this QR code you can check your home's property value with a link in the description below all different sorts of ways that you can reach out to me now let's get on to the numbers here so starting with what drives are our Market which is going to be supply and demand simple economics 101 type of stuff what we're looking at first of all is all property types then we're going to go kind of dig into single families versus condos versus Town Homes but starting with all properties overall new listings were about flat month over month is that normal is that not we're looking at three years of data here okay and it looks like May was about our Peak last year of inventory June the year before uh June the year before July the year before so we're actually down in new listings overall which is which is really interesting we're down quite a bit uh from what the seasonal Trend normally is you know last year in comparison in August we had 7600 new listings this year we've got 8,100 so a little bit more than last year but not as much as the year's prior so little bit of a dip in new listings which is controlling what prices are doing now active listings this is purely your supply and demand right how many listings are staying live on the MLS and what's the inventory look like and it actually dipped this last month down to 18,000 from 18,800 and we can see last year our Peak was actually September for active listing so it'll be interesting to see if September takes up a notch uh we get more houses on the market or if we continue the downward Trend which cyclically is what happens towards the winter there's less active inventory on the market now when we Zoom this out we can see our active inventory levels are still at pretty much a peak point for the last decade the last time we had this much inventory was back in 2013 okay so it's been a 11 years since we've had this much inventory on the market now if you have been looking uh you do know that the quality of inventory out there is not very good uh it's just kind of how it is and the good houses that are out are still going rather quickly all right how many con how many properties are actually going under contract we're looking at pending listings and we can see we saw an uptick from 5700 in July up to 6,100 in August is that normal well not really last year we can see we peaked in April and we just took a downward plunge all the way into December the year before May was the peak and we kind of took a downward plunge but then we did poke up in August again July is cyclically and historically a really tough month to be a seller uh it's just people go on vacation things are kind of dead around town it feels kind of like a ghost town and then August hits and activity picks up a little bit more and then with interest rates that dropped about half of a point uh down to about 6% there were a number of buyers who did get off the fence just with that interest rate drop and that kind of helped our activity okay so let's get on to closed listings this is what all the articles are about this is what's kind of shaking everything up is how down we are in closed property so we did drop in August down to 5700 but we did see pending sales going up so I would think in September we see a little bit of a spike on closed sales right on closed properties uh but again this is kind of the trend as we zoom out this map like we Peak out in about closings in July uh July uh May and so we always Peak out in early summer and then we kind of drop from there every single year for the amount of properties that are closed it's just kind of what happens days in MLS All right so now we're starting to get up to territory where conversations with sellers are not like what they used to be hey we're going to go on the market if we're priced halfway decently we're going to sell within a week or two well the average days on MLS right now is 39 and that's for all subproperty types condos I believe it's even much much higher than that um and single families we'll take a look at all that in a second here on the breakdown but 39 days on Market it doesn't sound like it's that long but when you go on the market two weeks feels like an eternity I'll just tell you that right now so have your expectations and checked if you're thinking of going on the market it's likely going to take four to six weeks to get under contract the better priced you are the better property you have yes those are going on the first weekend and in fact uh over the last couple of weeks I've been helping a couple of buyers right now and uh we've been competing against multiple offers in fact all three or four properties we put offers out on had other offers on them uh we did win a couple of them we did lose a couple of them and that's just how it goes you never know what you're going to compete against or how much over different areas uh have different activity going right now there's a lot of micro markets around Denver that it's it's just kind of unpredicted right now at what's going on so if you are a buyer the advice still is if you like something move on it don't drag your feet okay because it can very likely go on you without you knowing all right month supply of inventory the real metric on uh supply and demand we're down to 3.4 we're down from 3.6 months of inventory so what this means once again is if all inventory were to stop no more new inventory would come on the market it would take us approximately 3.4 months to sell out of everything and generally this number increases until the end of the year but we dropped a little bit interest rates dropped just a little bit uh there's still not a lot of sellers out there and you know because of the activity picked up a little bit we dropped an inventory Just a Touch uh which is not a bad thing and then we can get on to showings and what the activity is going to look like and what you can expect if you were to go on the market and what we can see is it takes about nine showings to go under contract in the month of August and then on uh average you're getting 4.8 showings per month okay so almost five showings per month adding up with the average days on Market which is you know six weeks or so um so that's what I would expect if you were going on the market one more stat which is the important stat right what's your value actually doing well we're on the downward Trend uh look like June was our Peak at 585,000 is that same for single family Town Homes I'll show you in a second here we dropped down to 576 in July and now we're down to 570 in August so we're down what 15,000 you know so few percentage points down from our Peak so far in June of this year pretty cyclical I would expect the rest of the year for that number to keep declining now for the breakdown single family PR properties and their closed price dropped down to 617 from 630 so most of the drop was affected by single family homes this time of year uh not too uncommon we can see last year we were about flat year before which is a little weird in 2022 we were just on a steady downtrend all year but this is generally when we see prices start to turn a bit as we get into fall and closer the winter okay new listings for single families dropped just a tiny bit just about flat 6150 to 6100 active listings also dropped from 13,800 down to 13,300 pending ticked up quite a bit from 4,400 up to 4700 close listings dropped so 4600 down to 4,400 days in MLS spiked up big time went from 31 days up to 39 days so another week Plus on the market for single family homes month supply dropped from 3.5 to 3.3 months uh and then shows depending went up to 10 shows per listing was 5.3 that was for single family moral the story is we're on the downtrend right going to condos now condos if you've seen some of my latest videos uh we have a lot of cono inventory right now particularly in downtown Denver so if you're a buyer downtown Denver there are some pretty stellar opportunities right now where you can kind of steal some properties uh not quite but there's a lot of properties on the market for six plus months that are getting a little motivated we should say so closed price condos went from 366 down to 350 $116,000 off of 36 I mean that's what 5% roughly in one month what's going to happen over the next couple of months I mean this is our Trend you know this line is a little bit skewed but we can see June was the peak here in 2018 at 265 dropped all the way down to 255 doesn't sound like a lot but that's a solid 6ish percent I would expect to see this number continuing to drop we might get down to the 320s right uh low 330s or something over the next couple of months now these are median numbers so uh you know you got to take them with a grain of salt that every property is the same you're priced right you got a good property you're still going to get a good price okay new listings to come on ticked up a little bit so we're single family we declined in new listings in condos we ticked up a little bit so that should probably make months of inventory even higher active listings did drop though okay so more stuff went under contract uh 3,000 down to 2800 but again let's Zoom this out wow look at that Spike right if this was a stock they'd be you know taking a breakout here as of the last couple of months and then we're going to expect to continue to see this number to go up up up and away as far as the amount of active inventory wow we haven't had this much active inventory so we had 2900 units in June since 2011 we haven't had this much active inventory in condos since 2011 holy cow pending pending did tick up so we went from 680 up to 720 closed about flat 690 to 682 ml or days and MLS went up to 41 from 38 so not not too much increase there month supply did drop from 4.8 down to 4.5 so again anything over four months of inventory it's about a balanced market so you have the chance to negotiate here and then showings to pending was seven and the amount of showings per listing was 3.3 that is that is low that is not a lot of showings if you had a condo on the market and you weren't getting three showings a month you probably wouldn't feel so good so set the right expectation it's not time to just drop your pants on price immediately if you have a condo uh it's going to take some patience okay town houses closed price dropped a little bit by 3,000 not a huge deal new listings we had a big old Spike up because they re uh retargeted how they kind of categorize some of the properties in the MLS so we didn't go up by 600% in new listings over the last few months uh so it's going to take while for this data to play out so it doesn't look skewed we're basically flat month over month 700 new condos uh coming to the or new town houses coming to the market uh from July to August the amount of active listings dropped just a little bit 1,500 down to 1450 pending kept on the trend ticked up a little bit just by 25 more units close listings kind of stayed flat days in MLS did Spike up just like everything else up to 30 Six Days on the market and then month supply of inventory o that dropped healthy went from 4.7 down to 4.1 months of inventory um showings uh tow houses eight showings until going under contract and then approximately 4.1 showings per month uh so there is your Shakedown single family condos to town H home so what's the moral of the story here and what are we looking at over the next couple of months well it's election season things get a little bit goofy there's a lot of crazy headlines out there like I said this whole Aurora Venezuelan gang thing um you have you know people on one side uh saying one thing and you have people on the other side saying another thing there's rumors of Hell's Angels coming into town like it's just getting a little bizarre out there and I was expecting bizarre in election year I was not expecting this here's what I think is going to happen is over the next few months I think we see prices continue to get depressed a little bit which is normal around this time of year I think we see you know drops in prices of 10 to 15% year-over-year where normal year is s to you know 10% is so I think think we see a little bit more but it's an election year so again super duper common there's just not a lot of houses coming on the market okay um with the handful of buyers that I'm working with right now properties that we're looking at I would say four out of five five are kind of Grandma's house right so if you don't have the ways and means to dump a couple hundred thousand into a property to update it the stuff that's homeowner updated not the flips out there but the homeowner updated stuff which is nice is still selling rapidly we've been competing against multiple offers on those properties where other stuff is still sitting so there's a premium being placed on the nice well taken care of properties and everything else people don't want to mess with honestly with paying what you're paying on interest rates uh you you're being a little bit pickier as a buyer which is fine this is you know you're spending 500 to a million bucks on a home like you're allowed to be picky um and that's making for some frustrated Sellers and on the selles side people know that there's not much inventory out there so they're digging their heels in on price and concessions and things like that so it's making this you know transaction with some friction there now something that don't see much of right because you don't really have access to this and even on our end the information isn't that readily available but on the MLS something that I watch Daily is just this this kind of market watch box here in the middle which shows me what is coming back on the market so we had 1150 new listings in the last I think seven days is the time frame uh 300 came back on the market I mean that's what 25% of all new list things coming out of the market are going under contract and coming back on the market lots of buyers are flaking out right now financing issues inspection issues friction in the deals equals more contracts falling apart it happens price decreases 1,700 properties had a price decrease 10% of properties have had a price drop in the last week that are on the MLS not a common thing to see I am here to keep you updated on what the Denver Market is doing so again if you got any questions feel free give me a call shoot me a text message I'd be happy to chat with you and likewise if you want to keep up to date on what's going on in the Denver Market just go ahead and scan this QR code and I'll send you my weekly email with stats and what you can do and how to take action if you are in the market to sell or to buy in Denver and if you did miss my latest video that blew up on me unexpectedly here it is it's about the Venezuelan gangs and what's going on in Aurora and the information that I have available to me that I will be following up with you in a couple of days to keep breaking this news and story about what's going on

Denver New Listings

Denver Active Listings

Denver Pending Listings

Denver Closed Listings

Denver Days on Market

Denver Months Supply of Inventory

Denver Showing Traffic

Denver Closed Price

Denver Single Family Numbers

Denver Condo Numbers

Denver Townhome Numbers

Rest of 2024 Predictions