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Denver Metro Real Estate Market Update

[0:00] how is your largest investment looking is it going up in value is it going down in value it's beginning of November and you know what that means we get to geek out on the October real estate numbers for the Denver metro area and find out what our biggest asset is doing when it comes to how much it's worth so we're going to break down all of October's numbers and the election is over and it's officially the first day of winter here in Denver we got our first big snowfall Man actually it kind of came down quite a bit we got about six inches in our house here uh at in South Denver um so I'm absolutely loving it right now but there's a lot of headlines out there lots of inventory um but the inventory out there isn't that good uh and so good listings priced well still going fast still appreciating in value I believe but I haven't looked at all the numbers yet so let's just dig right into it find out what's going on we're going to start with where we always start which is as far as supply and demand which drives prices now what we're looking at here is all the new list things right this is directly from the MLS so all the stuff you're going to get from realor.com and re Colorado that's going to be delayed by another two or three weeks this is the legit information straight from the MLS that I get to see every single day um so new listings down down down down now that's usually the trend this time of year so we're looking at the past three years of data here okay each one of these spikes usually spikes up around May June or so is being the peak and then it Trails off from there right so not uncommon the amount of new listings coming to the market Market is dropping where were we compared to last year though so in October we had a total of 7200 new listings come on the market last year we had 5900 that's a 21 almost 22% increase year-over-year with the amount of new listings coming to the market that's a lot like that's a lot percentag Le but active listings right are these all just getting bought up or are they sitting around so active listings have dropped down to 18,000 from almost 20,000 so 10% drop month over month compared to last year we're up let's take a look October was 16,600 this year was 18,000 so up about 9% okay in active listings sitting on the market not nearly as big of an increase as the amount of new listings so that was is telling me there's likely more closed listings happening but we'll find out here in a minute um now I will add on this that we are currently looking at all inventory right we're looking at single family condos and town homes and in the event that you're new here my name is Alex San I've been a local agent here since 2010 uh helping buyers sellers relocate around the Denver area and if you have any questions you can just reach out to me just scan this QR code uh you can get in touch with me set up a few minutes to chat with me love to talk with you about the market and about what you're looking to do now back on to the inventory numbers um so when we look at pen in listings right this is going to tell us what's coming down the pike as far as how many closings we're going to have but there's a caveat to this number that I'm going to show you in a second so we can see from June we had about 5600 then 5600 then 5500 ticked up just a little bit to going under contract 5500 in October so just a little bit but we're kind of flat normally what happens at this time of year is we just fall off of a cliff right um down by 500 to a th000 every month to be flat over last few months is a little bit of a different Trend right so worth paying attention to what does that say to me that says to me that you know despite higher interest rates uh you know people aren't scared off right now they're still having to make a move closings yeah are way down overall over the last few years that's across the board Nationwide but this is telling me that the people that are moving have finally hit their breaking point they need to sell they need to buy and it's kind of leveled off a little bit um I'll give you my predictions here what I think it's going to happen over the next three to six months um whether I'm right or not yeah who knows we'll find out uh but I have a pretty decent track record with it closed listings here we go okay so just like I thought like close listings are up month over month but just by a few hundred right but compared to last year where were we at 4,800 closed and this year 5500 that's a 133% increase in Clos listings year-over-year like that's fairly significant once again that goes back to active listing shooting up and uh or active listings dropping and new listings shooting up telling me that hey the stuff that's coming on the market is actually getting absorbed by the market we're not continuing to build in active listings but this is where I'm going to jump around here and show you what the kind of X Factor is in all this so active listings are dropping new listings are ramping up a little bit uh so what does that mean here well when we look at a number that you don't typically see withdrawn and expired I look at this very closely right so in the last 30 days the amount of properties to be withdrawn off the MLS is 1233 down in your left hand corner okay 1233 if we have a total of how much inventory on the market um 18,000 just to be withdrawn which means temporarily removed still kind of for sale but no showings or anything like that maybe they're doing some upgrades or something that's 1,200 that's what 7% right of the entire Market is withdrawn in the last 30 days let's look at expired this means taken off the market we didn't get our price we fired our agent whatever it is this in the last 30 days is 2500 so combined between withdrawn and expired that is 3700 properties removed from the market okay going back to active listings we only dropped about 2,000 less than 2,000 so that actually says inventory is increasing and we're not selling all of these properties they're just getting removed from the market so they might come back up come this spring right March and April are the two months best months to be a seller right now if you're a buyer now is the right time to be the buyer um so this is this is interesting the number of withdrawn and expired is crazy like that is a very high number that is a lot of Agents putting in a lot of work to try to sell a property and they are not that is a lot of sellers putting their house on the market going through the pain of showings and things like that to not get what they want out of it um so we're going to keep an eye on that closely now Clos listings uh we went over they went up a little bit days and MLS here we go now we're looking at the media let's look at the average average days on the market is 47 okay so six weeks to be on the market before going under contract okay people have that confused when they go under contract they are sold right you are not sold if you are under contract okay what you are is under contract and right now about 25% of all deals are falling out of contract okay so keep that in mind like going under contract does not equal a Payday okay you have a long road to go through inspections appraisals uh before you actually get to the closing table so on the market 6 weeks and typically another 30 days to close so if you are on the sell side expect three months before you can actually cash out and be on your way okay keep that in mind it catches a lot of people off guard um all right month's Supply now we did Plum it down we went from 3.8 down to 3.4 compared to last year in October we were at 3.2 so a little bit higher um nothing too crazy up by 6% there but again we're plummeting in month supply because there's less stuff on the market now as buyers are absorbing our current inventory okay um showings showings are oh up a little bit let's see the average showing um yeah we're up to 14 showings before going under contract okay so if you are going on the market and you're considering what to do as long as the property's been marketed properly if you have had 14 showings uh and you have not had an offer you're overpriced okay time to adjust the price downwards um likewise let's take a look at shows per listing 4.4 per month okay so you're going to have one maybe two showings per week depending on how you're priced depending on the attractiveness of the property based on your Market are you against a busy street or are you in the middle of the neighborhood where everybody wants to be right um are you on the hill with any views right and that's going to be different than someone that's in a little bit of a valley that doesn't have any views right there's a lot to be considered right now and buyers right now are being quite a bit pickier right as they should be they're paying 7% interest rates right now interest rates have gone up like crazy over the last handful of weeks and just to show you where they're at um let me see here here we go so this is this is what catching me off guard this is a thre Monon graph and we're just going to pull up conforming loans they were 6.4 6.5 6.5 fed said hey we're going to be dropping rates dropped down all the way down to 6% now we're back up higher to 6.79 currently okay we are almost this is a three-month map we're looking at right here we're almost at a six-month high right like so this is this is catching us off guard the FED lowered rates but rates are going up why that's a whole another discussion uh but basically it boils down to people thinking the FED didn't need to do 50 basis points like what's going on um so just a little bit of an interesting thing happening there so where does that leave us to our closed price what you all want to know is your home going up in value or down in value we had an anomaly in October it went up we went from 560 to$ 575 what $155,000 right in value up a percentage or so um compared to last year where we are up from what 556 we are officially up 3.4% year-over-year on pricing like this is not normal like if I pull this map out and I we can see the trend here right May June is always the peak of closings for people putting their house on the market in March and April and then it just Trails down Trails down oh in 2018 we had a little bit of a bum up by 1% um and then it just Trails down until January same thing with 2019 boom Trail down uh 2021 June was the peak trailed down 2022 April was the peak and we had a big old flush down there last year or two years ago last year it was June was the peak and then it just trailed down to December right into January so we did have quite a bit of a tick up why I don't know did the lower interest rates help because those bottomed in the middle of September so the closings happened in October um and people took advantage of that H probably lines up pretty good so will I expect raising prices in November December and January nope not at all uh I would not Bank on that whatsoever um but it is something to pay attention to because it is a little out of the ordinary now this is for all property types what if we were to break down the difference between single family condos and Tow houses so for single families that we had a bump from 600 up to 615 that's where the bulk of transactions are going to happen Okay um condos we actually dropped a little bit we went from 360 but we spiked up from August of 350 up to 360 in September and then we dropped down just a few thousand bucks um not a real notable drop in October for condos tow houses we just don't have a whole lot of them here they are on your typical trend of going down until the end of winter okay so there you have it now what's happening little bit bigger picture so I like to look at redin um for their data and information um they have a lot of great stuff out there so new listings we can see dropping as they typically do very even with the last two years 2023 2022 were kind of right there okay pending sales let's see dropping a little bit keeping up with the winter Trend um you know but we're still right there for 2022 2023 homes sold uh we're right there with 2023 bit lower than 2022 uh median sales price we ticked up over the last few weeks okay so Nationwide we are up 5% year-over-year Across the Nation for housing right even with these higher interest rates and everybody saying the Market's going to crash and do all this stuff there's no inventory for sale I know we have 20% more inventory than we did last year but last year we had like record low inventory num so percent L it's not that much um and just to show you like what I mean by that okay let's look at active listings okay we're up let's pull all property types 18,000 okay let's zoom out to five years okay it's the highest we've had in five years in October let's pull out the max so the last time we had this much inventory was all the way back in like 2013 is okay so that was a long time ago but the last 10 years we have had a hyper Market going up by six plus percent every single year which is not the norm I mean I guess our Norm in Denver here is 6% over like a 100e time frame okay um but Nationwide that is not the trend we had lots of years where we were up 10 15% in our Denver Market year-over-year in the last decade that's not normal so we're just kind of getting back to this little normalization a little bit which has actually been nice um you don't have to jump on a property within the first you know four hours of it being online in order to have a chance to get it uh so Nationwide we are up a little bit in price active listings let's see here we dropped a little bit um we're still up 15% year-over-year Nationwide for the amount of active inventory this one's always my favorite price drops price drops are on the rise they always are um 6.5% of everything on the market last week had a price drop on it um so I mean one out of 15 properties had a price drop last week alone not the last month last week age of inventory um it's higher you know age of inventory is 59 days so two months on the market on average month supply is creeping up there 16.5 weeks Supply so that is over four months that is considered a balance Market in the entire us okay so where do we go from here what in the world is g to happen well first of all if you have any questions uh you've also got my cell phone number right down there Boop you can call me you can text me anytime uh just reach out I'd be happy to chat with you about whatever you got going on and where do we go from here right um Trump has been announced as the president and the stock market is up there's a little euphoria going on with half the population right as there always is um and the other half is not happy about it what's going to go on from here well we saw a big spike this morning in the 10-year yield so what I've heard from one of my mentors is that there's a good chance that rate drops are off the table okay because the market is strong enough to withstand our current rates for a little bit longer um whether or not that happens I don't know the FED doesn't know what they're going to do in the next 30 days let alone the next three to six months okay so I would suspect interest rates stay hovering for a little longer than what we've been thinking as far as two more 25 basis points by the end of this year and then four in next year right um so we will see what happens there uh think Trump is going to uh push The Narrative of he's going to get rates to drop and so I think and there might happen but it might take a little bit longer than we think it might push us into the middle of next year or something but I think what's going to happen is that uh with our limited inventory the election is over and people want to get on with life they're just going to make their decision now move where they want to move move to Canada you move to Norway whatever um and I say that jokingly right kind of cheeky uh because of all the memes out there and uh I think it's going to increase the activity level on both sides people that need to downsize are going to downsize knowing hey this is what we're in we got to suck it up with the current interest rates and finally make the move right um I think people who need to move up are finally going to go okay the election's over we know what environment we're in now and we can finally make the move so I am expecting a busy spring when does that begin you know it usually begins middle end of February where activity starts picking up right um I think it might start a little bit sooner this year right I think it's going to start more now with everybody who has delayed and maybe it's only 5% of the market right 10% of the market who's like H I'm just going to wait till this this election is over before we make a move well 5 to 10% more buyers in the market would be a drastic change in the overall market so I think if you are on the buy side I think there still is an opportunity to get a good deal right now right where if you buy now come March and April you're going to be up by 10% in value just because of the seasonality right um and I think from there you know we have slow appreciation over the next few years honestly so the next three to six months I see I think we see some more activity especially in more hypermarkets like we have here in Denver um I think Nation wide we just see a slow steady creep and crawl now Nationwide we're actually doing really well numbers wise I'm I'm actually kind of surprised but I think I think this just has to do with people moving from more expensive areas to less expensive areas and driving up the prices in Iowa Minnesota Wisconsin uh Chicago is up like eight or nine perc like they've been in a declining population for the last 30 years for crying out loud and their prices are going up like what in the heck is going on so people are moving for more expensive areas I.E Denver right back home to the Midwest I mean 80% of us are transplants here right um and a lot of us are from the Midwest including myself so we're they're moving back home to be with family they have kids now whatever it is and they're driving the prices up there with the equity that they've gained in a more expensive Market people from San Francisco are moving to Colorado because we're half the price of Colorado people from Colorado are moving to Texas to Florida um to Arizona all these cheaper markets and driving up the prices there so I think Nationwide that's how we're seeing such a big increase is in the migration from more expensive places to more cheaper places right more inexpensive places um so over the next few years I do think we're just going to kind of float at two to 4% up uh Denver you know I think we're in that range I don't think we see hyper numbers for a little bit unless something drastically changes and rates do get down to 4% again um then I think we see crazy 5 10% over asking price scenario once again um so if you need me and you want to talk scan this QR code uh reach out to me you can get out my Weekly Newsletter too keep up toate on what's going on in the market um and until the next time happy housing

Denver New Listings

Denver Active Listings

Denver Pending Listings

Denver Closed Listings

Denver Days on Market

Denver Months Supply of Inventory

Denver Showing Traffic

Denver Closed Price

Condo and Townhome Closed Prices

Redfin Nationwide Data

2025 Predictions