Blog > Is Now the Time to Buy in Denver? September Market Update
Is Now the Time to Buy in Denver? September Market Update
by Alex Saldana
Is Now the Time to Buy in Denver? September Market Update
By Alex Saldana, Colorado Real Estate Broker (License #042865) · September 10, 2026
▶ For the full breakdown, watch the video on YouTube.
Yes, September and October are the best window for Denver buyers this year. Closings are down 12.3% year over year, inventory is flat, and sellers are negotiating before the usual November listing drop kicks in.
What did the August Denver housing numbers actually show?
New listings across the Denver metro rose 3.4% from August 2025 to August 2026, while closed sales fell 12.3%.
New listings across the Denver metro rose 3.4% from August 2025 to August 2026, while closed sales fell 12.3%. That's the headline pair. Active inventory is basically flat year over year, and month supply of inventory is flat too, though I expect that supply number to creep up given how few homes are actually closing.
Last August we closed almost 6,200 homes metro-wide. This August we closed 5,400. Pending contracts dipped hard in July to around 5,600 and only recovered a little in August. Days in MLS is actually down 5.9%, which doesn't track with the rest of the picture, and that's part of what makes this market strange. Price per square foot is down about 7% to $294 from roughly $296. Dollar volume is down almost 12%, which makes sense when you sell 12% fewer homes.
Showings per listing sit at four and it takes about 10 showings to get a home under contract. Those are normal numbers for this time of year.
Is the Denver housing market crashing?
No, and the clearest evidence is that there are zero active short sales in the entire Denver metro MLS right now.
No, and the clearest evidence is that there are zero active short sales in the entire Denver metro MLS right now. Not one. There are 137 short sales under contract, but that count stretches all the way down to Colorado Springs. People are not losing their homes to distress.
The drop in closings is what everyone is pointing at when they say the market is crashing. But those missing closings aren't foreclosures. They're deals falling apart. Right now 25 to 30% of homes that go under contract come back on the market. Inspections are the biggest culprit, followed by sellers who won't budge on price because they're sitting on a 3% mortgage and don't truly have to sell.
Even a homeowner heading toward foreclosure has 20, 30, 40, sometimes 50% equity. They can list normally, drop the price until it moves, and walk away with money. That's why the distressed inventory that fuels a real crash simply isn't here.
Why did the Denver median price drop 10% in one month?
Denver proper's median close price fell from $593,000 in July to $540,000 in August, a $53,000 single-month swing.
Denver proper's median close price fell from $593,000 in July to $540,000 in August, a $53,000 single-month swing. Expect headlines about Denver dropping 10% in 30 days. Then look at last year: June 2025 was $610,000, July fell to $545,000, and prices sat flat for the next couple of months. This is a seasonal pattern, not a collapse.
Year over year, which is the number that matters, the metro-wide median is down 2%. Denver proper is down 2.7%. That's flat in any honest reading. Homes are closing about 1% under their current asking price, and roughly half of all Denver listings have taken at least one price cut, which is normal for late summer.
My guess is prices stay flat through fall, same as last year, because there are no distressed sellers forcing the floor lower. Median price is a mix of what sold, and the mix shifts when higher-end summer sales fall off.
How do higher mortgage rates affect Denver buyers?
Every 1% increase in interest rates removes roughly 10% of buyer purchasing power, and rates are sitting around 6.7% right now.
Every 1% increase in interest rates removes roughly 10% of buyer purchasing power, and rates are sitting around 6.7% right now. A few months ago at 6%, a buyer approved for a $600,000 home could shop at that number. At 6.75%, that same buyer is looking at $550,000.
Here's how that plays out in real life. People start their search, fall in love with something a little nicer than they planned, and stretch the budget. Then rates tick up and the budget has to shrink. Nobody wants to go backward, so they sit on the sidelines and keep their current house. Sellers who were also going to buy pull their listings. Homes sit, expire, and the cycle repeats.
That's the real reason closings are down, not a wave of trouble. The buyer pool thinned out. Which, if you're one of the buyers still standing, is your advantage.
When is the best time to buy a house in Denver?
September and October are the sweet spot, because Denver metro inventory drops about 15% in November and another 20% in December.
September and October are the sweet spot, because Denver metro inventory drops about 15% in November and another 20% in December. Last year we went from 27,000 active listings to 17,000 in that stretch. May, June, and July are the peak inventory months, August dips slightly, and then the fade starts.
Right now there are still a ton of homes on the market, but closings are already falling off. That mismatch is what I'd call the Goldilocks zone. For the next 60 to 90 days, buyers have real room to negotiate. That means seller concessions toward closing costs and rate buydowns, and offers 2, 3, 5, even 10% under asking depending on days on market and what the comps say.
Yes, 6.7% isn't fun. But you can have high prices or high rates, and only one of those can be refinanced away later. With midterm elections ahead, I wouldn't be surprised to see rates push down at some point, though nobody knows when.
What should Denver sellers do in this market?
Sellers need to price against their active competition, not the sold comps from 3, 6, or 12 months ago.
Sellers need to price against their active competition, not the sold comps from 3, 6, or 12 months ago. Buyers look at comps, sure, but they spend more time looking at what else is for sale right now. If your price and condition don't make you the obvious next home to sell in your neighborhood, you sit another 30 days.
In some neighborhoods there are only a couple of buyers a month. If three of your neighbors are listed and one of them is cleaner or cheaper, that buyer picks them. The absorption rate in your specific area tells you how long a sale realistically takes given current competition, and that number is what should drive your pricing.
If you're a seller and a buyer at the same time, one side of the deal is going to sting. That's always true. Right now the sting is on the selling side. Price right, present well, keep expectations grounded in what's active today. If you want the actual absorption numbers for your street, send me your address and I'll run them.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are Denver home prices dropping in 2026?
Slightly. The Denver metro median close price is down 2% year over year and Denver proper is down 2.7%. Month-to-month swings look dramatic (Denver proper fell $53,000 from July to August) but that matches last year's seasonal pattern almost exactly. Year over year, prices are essentially flat.
Is Denver a buyer's market right now?
It's leaning that way for the next 60 to 90 days. Closings are down 12.3%, inventory is flat, and about half of listings have taken a price cut. Buyers are getting concessions and offers under asking accepted. It's not a full buyer's market, but September and October are the most buyer-friendly stretch of the year.
Why are so many Denver deals falling through?
Roughly 25 to 30% of homes that go under contract are coming back on the market. Inspection issues are the biggest reason. The second is sellers who refuse to negotiate repairs or price because they hold a low mortgage rate and don't have to sell, so they'd rather relist than compromise.
How much does a 1% rate increase affect what I can afford in Denver?
About 10%. If you were approved around $600,000 at a 6% rate, a jump to 6.75% pushes your comfortable price point down near $550,000. That's why the buyer pool shrinks every time rates tick up, and why fewer buyers means more negotiating power for the ones still shopping.
Are there foreclosures or short sales in Denver right now?
Almost none. There are zero active short sales in the entire Denver metro MLS. Only 137 are under contract, and that count reaches down to Colorado Springs. Most homeowners have 20 to 50% equity, so even in trouble they can sell normally rather than go through foreclosure.
When does Denver housing inventory drop for the winter?
November is the big cliff, with active listings falling about 15%, then another 20% in December. Last year the metro went from 27,000 homes on the market to 17,000. Inventory peaks in May through July, dips a bit in August, and fades slowly through October before the drop.
Should I wait for lower rates before buying in Denver?
I'd think about it differently. You can buy now with more inventory, less competition, and negotiating room, then refinance if rates fall. Or wait for lower rates and compete with everyone else who was also waiting. Higher prices are permanent, higher rates are not.
Thinking about buying or selling in Denver?
Call or text (303) 552-4804 for a no-pressure conversation about your situation.
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