October 7, 2026. Everybody Is Waiting for a Crash. Sales fell 17% in September and prices barely moved. Here is what that means this fall.

Denver just had its slowest September since 2012. Buyers are pickier than I have ever seen, and sellers are more stubborn than I have ever seen. And almost everybody I talk to is sitting on their hands waiting for 2008 to happen again.

I just recorded my October market update, and I pulled the MLS numbers to show you why I think the crash crowd is missing something big.

Sales fell off a cliff. Prices barely moved. That gap is the whole story this month.

The rest of September

- New listings: 8,300, about flat - Active listings: 25,956, more than a year ago - Under contract: 5,100, down 12% - Average days in MLS: 58 - Months of supply: 4.6 - Close price vs list price: about 2% under - Showings per listing: 3.5 a month - Short sales in metro Denver: zero

Why prices are not caving

Inventory is back to where it was in 2011, and closings are down 17%. You would think prices should be getting squashed. They are not.

Look at that last line up there. There are zero short sales in the entire Denver market right now. Owners have too much equity to be forced out. People can still sell, they are just walking away with less than they hoped for. When inventory climbs but nobody is desperate, you do not get a crash. You get flat.

That said, averages hide a lot. I am looking at a condo right now that sold two years ago for 390K and is listed at 340K. That is a 50 thousand dollar drop on a beautiful unit. Figures can't lie, but liars can figure. You have to look neighborhood by neighborhood.

This is not 2008. It looks a lot more like 1981.

2008 was a lending problem. No money down, no income check, ninja loans. Rates were in the fives and sixes. And even then, Denver held up better than almost anywhere. Prices here fell about 4% in 2008 while the national index dropped 18.2%.

Today is a rate problem. I am seeing the 30 year fixed around 7.45%, the highest we have been since early 2025. The closer match is the early eighties. The 30 year hit 18.63% in October 1981, existing home sales fell by nearly half from the 1978 peak, and prices did not crash. They just flatlined. Nobody wanted to give up their low rate back then either. Sound familiar?

Sources: S&P Case Shiller (2008), NAR August 2026 existing home sales, Denver metro MLS.

If you are selling this fall

Make the house easy to see. I am working with several buyers right now, and if we cannot get in within a reasonable window, we move on and might not come back.

Price it right out of the gate. Padding the price by 25 or 50 thousand to leave room for negotiation almost always nets you less in the end. Expect offers 5 to 10% under asking, and do not take it personally. Buyers spent a decade paying over asking, and now they want a little revenge.

Good news if you have a good house: this past weekend I saw two listings get multiple offers. They looked good and they were priced right. That was it.

If you are buying

Warren Buffett said to be greedy when others are fearful. Easy to say, hard to do. Nobody knows when or if a bottom shows up, so act on what you know today.

Keep the payment in a range you are comfortable with. Buy the house that is a little rough cosmetically but has a good roof, furnace, and sewer line, not the pretty one that needs all three. Skip the busy streets. Open space and views always hold their value.

Then negotiate. An offer around 5% under asking is fair game right now, and most sellers will respond. About one in four sellers on the market do not really care to sell, and you will figure out which ones fast.

You can have lower rates or lower prices. You do not get both. Right now you get the price. By the time this storm passes, nobody is going to ring a bell, and prices can be up 10% in what feels like overnight.

Metro averages hide a lot. Want to know what homes like yours are actually selling for right now?

What's My Home Worth?

One question for you: are you waiting for a crash to buy, or waiting for spring to sell? Hit reply and tell me which one. I read every answer.