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Denver Metro Real Estate Market Update

[0:00] is your home worth more in 2025 than it was in 2024 that's what we're going to take a look at it's the beginning of January and we have the numbers to look at for the Denver real estate market find out what in the world actually happened towards the end of the year there we had some numbers kind of changing around on us we had interest rates changing how did that affect the price of your home well like always we're going to dig in to all the monthly numbers but we're also going to take a snapshot look at the entire year for the Denver metro area whether you're a single family or a condo or a town home kind of evaluate what's going on and take a look at interest rates find out how that's affecting the market and then I'm going to pull out my crystal ball and I'm going to tell you exactly what is going to happen in 2025 now as always if you have any questions on this video or anything else that I've ever covered just go ahead give me a call shoot me a text message below now I'm going to show you General numbers for the entire Denver metro area however that doesn't mean that your house is up or down in value so if you want to know yours specifically what I want you to do is go ahead you can scan this QR code uh you can get instant home evaluation then if you want I can go much further and spend 10 15 minutes really digging in analyzing your neighborhood your specific house kind of let you know where I think you fall on the scale of your home's value so starting off with supply and demand for the entire Denver metro area okay now we're talking all the suburbs including the Denver area up to Thorton all the way down to Parker Castle Pines Castle Rock all that good stuff so new listings right and what we can see is the trend is the same December we're down low 3,400 new listings to hit the market last year we were at 3,000 so a little bit more you know almost 10% more but all these numbers are really depressed so I wouldn't you know say that there's any change from year over-year but it is up you know 133% according to this year-over-year for new listings that hit in December this is generally the low point of inventory and now we're going to start to see everything close okay as people are coming out of the holidays putting their house back on the market if they expired it or went withdrawn and we can see it correlates right to our active listings right this year we've got 13,670 active versus the year before at 11,500 so that's a 19% increase year-over-year for the amount of active listings now we're looking at a fiveyear chart here okay now I can zoom this out and let's see where we at compared to other years and we can see you know these are the two covid years the lows um and then we kind of peak up and a little bit above and beyond so let's see you know what's going to happen over the next few months over the course of this year pending listings okay this is going to be you know giving us an indicator for what's closing over the next 30 days 4,100 to go under contract versus last year 37 3800 so we're still up 10% so active inventory is up new listings are up under contract is also up which means closings should be up over the next 30 days compared to year-over-year Clos listings now Clos listings usually takes a pretty big tumble in December but we can see we were at 5,000 compared to November at 5,100 now we had the election in there which usually slows things down a little bit anyways um but I didn't see as many Clos listings like the numbers plunge meaning we had more closed listings than I thought we would uh for December last year we were at 4,400 this year 5,000 so we were up 133% year-over-year now normally we can see back in 2024 was our low closed at 3500 and same thing with 2023 is the low let's see in January in 2022 was the low so we'll see I think we're going to break a TR actually you know from what we saw here we were seeing more go under contract than we did the month before and all the other numbers are up so I do think actually we're going to start our uptrend a little bit early this year a lot of things a lot of people hit the breaks with the election and I think once the election was over a lot of people got off the fence and so I think we're going to kind of kick that Trend a little bit and I think we're going to see an acceleration up as far as closings quicker than we have in the past okay now days in MLS uh getting on to you know if you were to put your house on the market how long would it take we're going to look at the average here because that makes more sense than the median 61 days on Market okay 61 days before your house goes under contract not before you close Okay most people kind of confus that oh we sold our house which you actually just went under contract okay you hear a lot of people say oh I sold it the first weekend no you didn't it still took four weeks to close even if you got under contract that first weekend and the reason why that's important is because about 25 to 30% of all deals are falling apart right now mostly due to inspection right um sellers are kind of sticking their heels in uh buyers don't want to pay top-of the market price for not a great perfect home um and so we have a lot of friction happening during the inspection part so a lot more deals are falling apart then you have the whole financing part of things with interest rates being as high as they are um which can you know usually a deal falls apart in about three to four week period if there's financing issues with inspections it usually falls apart within the first seven to 14 days okay um but we can see days in mLs are going up to 60 that's the highest it's been in five years and if we go back the last time we were at that number was back in 2013 than before that 2012 right and that's when we were still just we had just hit the bottom in 2012 from the 2008 uh re session that happened and we were just starting to come out of it inventory was going down activity was picking up so we haven't seen this long on the market in a while so your expectations if you are ready to sell now is that you're going to be on the market for at least two months because remember this is an average so if you're pushing towards the higher part of your price uh for your neighborhood it might be 90 or 120 days on the market before getting an offer and going under contract okay so keep that in mind if you're on the sell side all right month supply of inventory now month supply of inventory plummeted down to 2.4 back from 3.1 where we peaked out at 3.8 um so we're down about 50% in month supply of inventory over the last few months totally common uh now compared to last year where were we we were at 2.1 months of inventory so we are a bit more up in inventory stuff is sitting around longer right we are up 14% on months of inventory year over year okay percentage of closed price to list price all right we see this number tumbling this is if you listed your house at a million and you sold at 900,000 you would be at 90% for this number now it doesn't calculate in any price changes you've had on the market so I don't often look at this number but what this is telling me is even if you had price drops and you've dropped it down 10 15% in price this still says that you're going under contract 1% on average lower than your current list price okay all right and then shows until you go pending is at 13 so if you're on the market expect at least 13 showings before you get an offer that you're willing to go under contract on if we look at the average here it's up to 16.7 okay that might be a little bit better of a number there and then showings per listing is 4 .3 per month okay so your home is only getting shown four times if you're on that 8 to 10 Mark that means you have a lot more traction on your home a lot more desirable price point neighborhood all sorts of things can be uh for that reasoning but four and a half approximately showings per month and taking about 14 to 16 showings until you go under contract okay then to our close price has your home actually got up in value or down well again these are just the general numbers but month over month we did drop down to 559 from 565 so down about 1% month over month not uncommon but year over year this is where I am really surprised we were at 529 in December of 2023 is the median close price okay we're up to 559 that means prices went up 5.9% now uh just a few months ago in September we were at 555 compared to last year at 555 okay so normally like we're seeing here in September we went from 555 all the way down to 529 we did a pretty good uh correction in pricing which is completely normal it happens year over-ear you can set your clock to it this year we just kind of hover since September we've actually gone up in price so you know why is that well put the election on there right there's a lot of people taking their foot off the gas on looking for a house not knowing what's going to happen um and then you know just with the end of the year coupled on top of that we just didn't get as many people to list their house not as many people are motivated to sell their house even though they might want to uh maybe they don't have to and so that's just kind of keeping the prices steady right if you've been looking for a home you know the actual amount of inventory that's good to look at is very slim so that's really affecting prices and how stable things are staying uh again it's it is a little bit surprising right uh to see that we have gone up nearly 6% year-over-year so what's going to happen well we'll talk about it in a little bit here um let's break this down into single families real quick okay we're going to take a look single family numbers then condos then tow houses kind of GI you an idea uh you know what you're in and you know how your value is being affected but once again if you have you know any questions or want to know what your particular home value is worth just go ahead click on that QR code or scan it and then there's also a link in the description below where you can get an instant home value um and then I'll dig into it a little bit further for you so all right let's look at single families single families were down month over month down from 609 down to 600 so one and a half price drop 3.8% increase year over year okay 600,000 ending 2024 versus 578 in 2023 okay so up 3.8% not nearly as much right so what's pulling it up well it's going to have to be condos and Tow houses right to pull us up to that 6% Mark okay new listings plunge down 2500 new to hit the market in December versus last year at 2200 so a few hundred more 14% up that is right on par active listings plunge down to 9600 uh from December of last year was at 8500 so quite a bit less or quite a bit more in the active listings up 133% year-over-year but still not enough to move the needle pending listings down to 3200 from 3600 month over month but that's up from 2700 last year so up 15% in pending sales or pending listings on the MLS for single family closed just kind of about bottomed out here 3,800 which is up uh 20% year-over-year and how many Clos listings in December I attribute this to the election and that getting over and then bunch of people who were you know hitting the breaks uh got off the fence G days in MLS average 60 month supply of inventory down to 2.2 months down from 2.9 last month uh but up year-over-year by 5% approximately and then showings depending on single families is higher it's 18 why probably because the average price point is higher right um and you have a lot more inventory to choose from so 18 showings until you go under contract and about five showings a month so it's about two and a half months uh according to those numbers for the average time to go under contract okay all right let's break it down to condos let's see what we got going here woo yoa that's a drop so month over month the median home price for condos went down to 340 from 370 $330,000 down wow 8% 9% month over month on down 3% year over-year now we're going to jump ahead and find out how many just closed here because maybe it's not that many and so the numbers are skewed because there's not that many that have actually closed uh the amount of close 500 you know 43 properties to close so yeah I would say the numbers can definitely be skewed since there's just not enough you know closed data new listings down to 423 which is still up 8% year-over-year the amount active went down to 2100 which is up 51.6% look at this 2,127 active condos currently last year in December there was 1,400 that is a 51% increase that is quite a bit God gosh last month that was just huge in October it was 3200 versus 1,700 that's a what 80% increase good Lord all right pending listings down to 456 so bit of a slump in pending listings Clos listings though jumped up a little bit month over month from 522 up to 4 543 but up a little bit year-over-year by 9% so still more activity in the condo Market da in MLS the average is up to 69 so quite a few days on Market if you're a condo owner month supply of inventory plunged down to 3.3% so we're getting back into the sellers Market here where it was five months of inventory our five months supply of inventory just a couple of months ago so if you're in the market for a condo know that the inventory is getting squeezed happens this time every time of year um and we're seeing a drastic reduction in how much inventory is out there but we will start seeing that number tick up we're also going to see the amount of buyers tick up as well okay shows until you go pending is 12 and a half so not as many as single family showings per listing is 2.7 per month so three showings per uh listing in condos not very much all right Town Homes now Town Homes there's not a whole ton in Denver so the numbers get skewed really easily but year over-ear you know we're down month over month by about four or five percent in price um which again Town Homes don't have a ton of numbers there uh so it's easy to skew the numbers but we're at 456 versus last year we were at 450 so just up 1.3% the amount of new listings that hit the market just tumbled down to 283 I mean look at that Spike um let's back up here and look at that like it just went wild I think there was a recategorization on the MLS that is kind of skewed with these numbers a little bit I don't think we had you know we didn't go from 122 new listings up to 982 in a few months I think there was a recategorization and that's messing with the numbers a little bit the amount of active listings has plunged down to 1,088 but that is up from last year at 448 that is up 142% 142% more town homes on the market this year than there were last year a lot of new builds are being classified as Town Homes too um and so I know a lot more of those are hitting the market now pending listings down to 348 from month over month uh was at 416 but that's still up 100% from last year where we were at 176 to go under contract now it's a 348 so activity still picking up close listings did drop month over month uh not much but compared to last year up 21% days in MLS creeping up there at 57 but still lower than the average for single families and condos and then month supply of inventory is down to 2.3 so that that inventory is really starting to squeeze in town homes down so if you're looking for a town home uh this might be a pretty active spring for you if you're a seller if you're a buyer you might have to compete okay the average numbers of showings per town home 13 and the amount of showings to go uh per month is 3.9 so Four showings per month if you are trying to sell a town home and it's taking you approximately 13 showings before you go under contract so where does that lead us going into 2025 here well I think the name of the game is the same that it's been for the last two years interest rates are driving the narrative out there every time interest rates dip down by a quarter to a half of a point we see a huge surge and activity okay every time we see interest rates go up by a quarter to a half of a point we see in or uh activity just kind of drop off of a cliff here okay and if you're wondering what interest rates are doing uh let's go ahead and take a look here and this is what's really been funky out there um this surpasses kind of my financial knowledge as far as well the FED has lowered interest rates by a 100 basis points or one full perc the 2year has gone down by more than 1% over the last few months since September since they started really dropping rates here but the 10-year and mortgage rates have gone up and in fact since September let's let's back up here September was the low at 6% for your average conventional mortgage rate and we're up to 6.86 now so almost up one full percent while the FED is dropping rates Okay so this is keeping a lot of people stifled here you know in November of 2023 we hit almost 8% are we on our way back there again I don't know um nobody does I mean heck the FED doesn't know what they're going to do you know 30 days before they do it let alone you know what's going to happen the next three six 12 months um but I think we're in this stalemate sort of situation okay and if you're trying to push the limit on what you're asking for you're going to sit on the market as a seller for 60 plus days okay and I think you're going to have to do numerous price drops and you'll probably end up selling 5 to 10% below what you thought you would get okay if you're a buyer the good homes in the good part of the neighborhood not against busy streets uh with homeowner upgrades I think those are still going to get a lot of attention Okay um the houses that are sitting around generally are either a shot too high on pricing or B are next to either commercial space or right next to a busy street there's some sort of deficiency on where it's located and that's why it's really sitting there okay the stuff that's done well in the middle of the neighborhood like those are still getting traction as long as they're priced appropriately so you can't sleep on stuff if you're a buyer right and the right thing comes along you don't know what's going to happen I mean if they go down in interest rates by you know to to 5% like we're going to have $50,000 over asking bidding wars within days okay um and so you just never know what's going to happen right uh I don't know I've been wrong about the market last few years and what's going to happen most big pundits and people that are paid millions of dollars every year to figure this stuff out have all been wrong right and so I think we're just going to chug along do I think we're going to see another 6% increase this year no I think that's optimistic and I think that just happened toward WS the end of the year as a result of you know the slowing sell season due to the election happening in the end of the year um and I think that artificially bumped it up a little bit but I mean 4% it's not off the table so we might just be on an average increase over the next 12 months and again there's a few ways you can reach out to me of course you got the good old cell phone text message uh pick up the phone give me a call I actually do answer my phone I'd be happy to chat with you about the market what's going on if you want to know what your house is doing because your house is different than the median numbers all across Denver scan this QR code get an instant home evaluation or you can reach out to me through this QR code uh and you can get on my weekly email and kind of keep posted on what the market is doing I hope you have a fabulous new year and if you want to see a ridiculously long video about the Denver metro area and every city in it just watch this video

Denver New Listings

Denver Active Listings

Denver Pending Listings

Denver Closed Listings

Denver Days on Market

Denver Months Supply of Inventory

Denver Showing Traffic

Denver Closed Price

Single Family Home Numbers

Condo Numbers

Townhome Numbers

2025 Predictions