Blog > The REAL Reason People Are Moving AWAY From Denver
Why People Are Leaving Denver: Prices, Politics, and Migration
Denver net migration has dropped 69.6% since 2015, price per square foot is down 20% since 2022, and almost every seller I work with is leaving the state. Here's why.
Key Takeaways
- Net migration to Denver fell 69.6% from 2015 to 2025, dropping from 43,500 to 13,000
- Price per square foot in Denver proper declined from $419 to $337, roughly a 20% drop
- Only 51% of Denver voters think the city is headed in the right direction
- 33% of Denver residents have already moved to a more affordable city or town
- Colorado property taxes rank third lowest in the country despite voter perception
Video Chapters
How much have Denver home prices actually dropped?
Denver's price per square foot fell from roughly $419 in 2022 to $337 in September 2025, about a 20% decline.
On the surface, the median sales price has been roughly flat for three years. That stat is misleading. Denver is a very micro market, and once you look at price per square foot, the real story shows up.
I can point to neighborhoods down 25% or more in the last two to three years. Days on market is climbing. Active inventory is up several hundred percent over the past few years, while the number of homes selling is at 15-year lows.
That's a real supply and demand problem. Sellers are flooding in, buyers are pulling back, and that imbalance keeps pushing prices down at the neighborhood level even when the metro median looks calm. If you're trying to price a home or write an offer right now, you have to look beyond the headline number and dig into your specific zip code, block, and product type.
Why are so many people moving away from Denver?
33% of Denver residents say they've already moved to a more affordable city, and 49% of Republicans plus 26% of Democrats have considered leaving.
Almost every seller I've helped in the last couple of years is leaving Colorado entirely, and the reason they cite most often is politics. That's not me projecting. It's what clients tell me at the closing table.
The Colorado Polling Institute survey backs it up. The top three issues for Denver voters are homelessness, affordable housing, and crime or drug problems. About 28% of residents say they don't feel safe at all in the city.
What surprised me is the partisan breakdown of people considering a move. 49% of Republicans, 37% of independents, and 26% of Democrats have considered leaving Denver. Since Denver proper votes roughly 80% Democrat, that 26% represents hundreds of thousands of residents. Even people voting for the leadership in place are unhappy with the direction of the city.
What policies are driving Denver's cultural shift?
Denver passed the Right to Survive Act, a 2022 inclusionary housing ordinance, and operates as a sanctuary city, all of which residents tie to current frustrations.
The homeless issue has been the top concern for years. Policies like the Right to Survive Act made it easier to sleep in public spaces, and during COVID we had streets lined with hundreds of tents downtown. My wife runs commercial maintenance for condo buildings and walked away from her downtown contracts because of needles and safety issues.
Sanctuary city status compounded it. Border cities sent busloads of migrants here with no real plan, and roughly 40,000 remain in the metro, around 12% of the population.
On housing, Denver's 2022 inclusionary housing ordinance required new developments to include below-market units or pay a fee. Permitting in Denver dropped up to 31% afterward, while neighboring Aurora's permits went up. Less supply, higher prices. You can't legislate your way to affordable housing, and these stacked policies are what residents point to when they explain their frustration.
Are Denver taxes really as high as people think?
Colorado property taxes are the third lowest in the country, yet nearly 70% of Denver voters believe taxes are high or way too high.
There's a real gap between perception and the math. Coming from Chicago originally, and working with buyers relocating from California, Texas, and Montana, I see how Colorado actually compares. Our property taxes are among the lowest nationally. Income tax sits at a flat rate that isn't out of line. Sales taxes are reasonable, especially when you factor in how much revenue tourism brings in.
I'd put myself in the 8% who think taxes here are about right or even low for what we get. But voter sentiment doesn't follow the data. When the cost of housing, groceries, and insurance all climb at once, people feel taxed even when the line items haven't moved much.
That perception drives behavior. People list their homes, cash out equity, and move to states they believe are cheaper, even when the total tax picture isn't actually better.
What does the political divide mean for Denver buyers and sellers?
Denver proper voted nearly 80% Democrat in the last presidential election, but counties just 20 minutes outside downtown swing solidly Republican.
Denver is a polarizing city right now, and that polarization is showing up in real estate decisions. Younger residents skew Democrat, older long-term residents skew Republican, and a lot of the people who've watched the city flip from red to deep blue over the last 20 years are the ones selling and leaving.
For buyers, it means you can match lifestyle to neighborhood pretty cleanly. If you want walkable, urban, and progressive, central Denver works. If you want acreage, horse property, and a more conservative community, you can be there in a short drive.
For sellers, it means understanding who your buyer pool actually is. The migration data shows fewer people moving in and more wanting out, which puts pressure on pricing strategy. You can't list at 2022 numbers and expect a 2022 outcome.
Is Denver still worth moving to right now?
Net migration is still positive at over 13,000 people in 2025, and quality of life remains one of the top reasons buyers choose Denver.
Despite the headlines, people are still moving here. The pace has slowed, but Denver isn't emptying out. Mountains in the backyard, 300 days of sun, strong job market, and lower property taxes than most comparable metros still draw people in.
My honest take is that 90% of people here are reasonable and want the same things, safe streets, good neighbors, and a fair shot. Social media and 24-hour news amplify the loudest 5% on either side, and that drives a lot of the doom scrolling about Denver being a hellhole.
If you're moving here, find the neighborhood that fits your lifestyle and don't rely on headlines to make the call. If you're selling, price to today's market, not the peak. The fundamentals are still here, but the strategy has to match what the data is actually telling us.
Full Video Transcript
Full transcript from this video, organized by chapter. Click any timestamp to jump to that moment in the video.
Denver Price Decline Overview
[0:00] Denver home prices are down 20%. Inventory is up hundreds of percent. And almost every client I've helped in selling their home in the last couple of years is not only leaving Denver, but they're leaving the state altogether. Almost all of them for one reason, the politics. Even my new buyers keep asking if the crazy headlines out there match the real life. So, in this video, I'm going to show you the stats, the culture changes, and the key policies that are reshaping Denver's market and why it's chasing half the population away. Now, before we dig into some concrete things, I want to say that I'm not a very political person, but I have heard this concern many, many times over the past few years. And when I hear this concern from several people, I'm going to guess a lot more thinking quietly. Now, let's start with some concrete data here.
[0:48] what's actually happening in our market today. So, since 2015, net migration is down 69.6% where in 2015 we had about 43,500 additional people moving into the metro area that moved out. And in 2025, that number is just over 13,000. That's a fairly significant difference. You can see that's actually up about 20,000 people a year from just a couple of years ago. Now, if you are one of these people that are finding yourself in this migrating population here and you're trying to make sense of this market because you do actually love Denver's vibe, then you can just go ahead call and text me or you can get on my weekly email here. Just scan this QR code. It's going to have the best most up-to-date information on the Denver market. Now, on the surface, what you're going to see is that the median sales price is about flat for the past 3 years. But if you've tried to sell your house in Denver or you've wanted to buy, you know, it feels very different than that. You know, I can show you neighborhoods that are down a good 25% plus in the last 2 to 3 years. And why is that? Well, the medium price doesn't paint the full picture.
Market Micro-Analysis
[2:00] So, in order to get a better picture, you have to look at the price per square foot sales number. Okay. Now, here what we're looking at in 2022 in Denver proper is we were closing at about $49 per square foot. And as of September 2025, that number is about $337 per square foot. That's a 20% decline. We are a very micro market. And from the overall picture, the median sales price shows flat, slightly up, but you have to dig into individual neighborhoods to actually find out what's going on. Now, days on market is also up a lot and that's same for anywhere in the country.
[2:42] Number of homes for sale is up a couple hundred% over the past few years. So, active inventory is constantly rising and the number of homes selling is at 15-year lows. So, we have a real supply demand issue going on right now. And the number of home buyers is getting smaller and smaller while the number of sellers is drastically growing. There's what the market is doing currently. That is by the numbers and it kind of paints a pretty bleak picture.
Political Divide Impact
[3:14] Now, here's some actual stats on the political divide in the Denver area. In the last presidential election, nearly 80% of Denver proper voted Democrat. But that compares to statewide where 26% of the population is registered Democrat, 23 registered Republican and 49% registered as unaffiliated. So what I wanted to actually do to try to take as much emotion and bias out of this as possible is actually look at the most recent survey done by the Colorado Polling Institute uh on Denver voters and what's going on in our city. 10% is Republican in Denver proper. 42% registered as independent and 48% registered as Democrat. Okay, great.
[4:01] Now, what's interesting is if 80% of voters in Denver vote Democrat, then we have a discrepancy here stating that only 51% of people think that Denver is headed in the right direction. So even a large percentage of the people who are voting for all the Democratic leaders and for the presidential race don't agree with what's going on in Denver currently. Now this has improved just a little bit over the last couple of years which you know coming out of CO you know maybe there's some discrepancies there.
[4:36] Guess I'm not too surprised a lot of some of some of the issues have actually cleared up a little bit over the last couple of years. A big one being homeless, but it's still a major issue as you're about to see. So, the three biggest issues that Denver voters have pretty consistent here, they have been for the last few years, which is homelessness, affordable housing, and then crime/ drug problems. Uh, and these are large percentages. And then we get to the typical stuff, you know, roads, infrastructure, cost of living, public transportation, all the standard stuff that we're always going to kind of battle as we're growing. And what this has done over the last year is that these numbers have changed a little bit.
Population Concerns & Safety
[5:13] Illegal immigration used to be higher on that list and now it's only a 9% on the scale for how much people are worried about it. A lot of those issues have kind of been handled, but we're still dealing with a lot of the repercussions of it. Uh balanced budget has kind of come more to the top of the list. Um, homeless has dropped in the concern as has crime and drug safety problems. Affordable housing is still up there for most people. So, this just shows you how kind of the concerns of people eb and flow based on what it's really like to live here. And this one is just concerning in general where about 28% of people say they don't feel safe at all in Denver. And then this is kind of the breakdown of who's not feeling safe and Republicans and conservatives take the top of that list. But this is a large percentage of the population that just doesn't feel safe, which is a problem.
[6:07] And what people think about Denver City Council is the majority of people are very unfavorable towards what's happening in our city council, which again is interesting because if 80% of the population votes purely Democrat, like we're not liking who we're putting into office, which should say something to you. And then if you've got kids and you're wondering about how people think about the school system here, which I have my own opinions on it. We've had great experience across the board uh from elementary, middle, and now through high school. But looking here, 47% do not think that the Denver school board uh is in the best interest of us and our children. Uh only 27 to 25% of people think that it is in our best interest. Uh, now here's where we get into some more specific stats about actually people leaving the Denver area.
[7:00] And it says here 33% have already moved to a different city or town that is more affordable. Now, how they get that information to state that, you know, it's always interesting, but it's still saying 33% of the people that have lived here uh are considering or have already moved. Now, 6% to a different neighborhood in Denver. So, a very small population are staying within it and 10% already moved in the last few years due to the cost of living. And then here we go. This headline here is a little interesting because when you read it, it says, you know, 49% of all Republicans have considered moving out of Denver.
Cost of Living & Migration
[7:38] But there's also 37% of independents and 26% of Democrats, which 26% of the Democrat population, if it is 90% of all the voters in Denver, that is hundreds of thousands of people have considered at least 200,000 have considered moving out that are Democrat themselves. So the policies that we're voting for, the people that we're putting in, all democratically led and a huge majority of the population that are Democratic voters are considering leaving. This doesn't doesn't quite add up, right? So this one I'm even surprised was on this poll. But overall, Denver voters are more positive in their assessment of socialism than capitalism. Little worrisome there. Now, I know we have social programs and I know we can argue about the definition of socialism and capitalism. Uh, but that's kind of arguing semantics in my opinion and we can kind of see this trend evolving over time where we're becoming very accepting of socialism and it does bother many many people. Interesting one here.
[8:45] Voters are split on whether there are too many marijuana dispensaries or the right amount in Denver. Uh, I don't know. I mean, I don't even drink anymore, so I couldn't even tell you if there's too many liquor stores or not enough. The market in capitalism will balance out what is needed in the market to supply the demand. Now, some nitty-gritty on some actual numbers here with taxes. I have my own thoughts on this and it kind of goes against what this says because I have some perspective being from Chicago originally, uh, having lots of buyers moving here from Texas. Yes, lots of buyers coming here from California, um the South Montana where there are some extreme taxes and so much of our revenue is supplied by uh visitors coming here and vacationing and spending money. Our property taxes are the third lowest in the country. Our income taxes are not out of line. Our sales taxes are not out of line. And so I would say we are actually lower than what I would expect than you know most areas that have prices like ours. So I would fall into that 8%. But you can see here that you know nearly 70% of people think we're either high or way too high. All right.
[9:58] So now we have some groundwork for not only what the market is doing but we also have some groundwork based on how people are voting and what issues are bothering them most. So, let's tie this into policy that has affected the way people are seeing Denver. And we're starting with the homeless issue. Uh, it's been the biggest issue for the last few years. And this is where it ties directly to the Democratic Party and policies passed. There's been several policies like the Rights to Survive Act, which made it easier to be able to sleep in public spaces. Uh, there's been some back and forth about the camping ban, which doesn't allow for setting up camp.
[10:34] But during CO, there were streets lined with tents, hundreds, thousands, and that was an issue for years. My own wife, she does uh commercial maintenance on many condo buildings, and she completely avoided going into the downtown area altogether, canceled those contracts. Uh there were needles laying around. There were homeless people all times a day uh bothering her, her crew, and enough was enough. And now it has seemed to have gotten a bit better. But the homeless issue also ties into our immigration policy and being a sanctuary city where you have cities at the border that are just sending bus loads of people here with no real plan on how to deal with it. Now that has mostly stopped. I'll say that. But many of our cities, right, LA, US, Chicago, New York, we're all dealing with this issue.
[11:29] And even to this day, the numbers say that there are some 40,000 remaining uh immigrants from the last couple of years that have stayed here, which makes up about 12% of the population for the entire metro area. Makes up a much larger percentage of the population when you look at Denver proper alone. And when you don't have a plan of what to do with an incoming population like that, a lot of people are going to end up homeless. Now, affordable housing, uh, it's an issue in Denver. Uh, but I'll argue because I'm from a large city, Chicago, where it's the norm to commute 45 minutes to your job each day, each way. Uh, if you're willing to do that here, there's some really affordable options. But either way, we know this is an issue around town. Housing is expensive here. Our quality of life is really high, though, and that leads to higher prices. And often times trying to pass policy just makes things worse for affordable housing. Like in 2022, for example, there was an inclusionary housing ordinance passed which would require a portion of new housing developments to include below market units or pay a fee to support affordable housing. Okay, you know, it sounds good on the surface, right? Creating more affordable housing. But it's arguably led to reduce permitting in Denver by up to 31%.
Affordable Housing Crisis
[12:54] Where the neighboring city, Aurora, has actually increased their building permits over the last couple of years, which means fewer units are being built in Denver, and it adds to a higher cost per unit and ultimately more pressure on housing supply. Prices are all about supply and demand. And if you get rid of some of the supply or some additional supply with a growing population, then you're going to have prices continue to increase. You know, I don't think you can legislate your way to more affordable housing. I just I just don't.
[13:25] Uh is it a problem? Yes. Do I claim to know how to solve it? No. But do I think government is the solution? Absolutely not. I am all about the free market and letting it do its thing. Uh just like the minimum wage laws, right? And then what happened within 6 to 12 months of it being a big issue is that well we had no more workforce here anyway so companies had to increase their pay rate to get help. The market tends to balance itself out a bit. And then both of these above, right, the homeless issue, affordable housing, immigration all lead to higher crime and drug issues. So it all compounds and many people think it's rooted in all the democratic policy that's been placed over the years protecting people and limiting, you know, the repercussions of breaking the law, right? And we're seeing this in all very heavily democratic cities. Seattle, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Chicago, New York, it's all tied very similarly together and we're all facing very similar issues. So, it's just natural that people are going to make that connection. And this has created some really intense cultural wars here. Uh, cultural wars, that's what I'm going to call it, for lack of a better term. But Denver always hasn't been blue. You know, in fact, less than 20 years ago, it was pretty red and we've been purple and we've been back and forth and we've always kind of flopped all over the place, but in the last 20 years, consistently democratic.
[14:58] This is so relevant of why I say this because it makes for a very polarizing city. The younger people are Democrat, the older people are Republican. So you have people that were born here, raised here, had kids here, and have seen it go from red to really deep blue. And in that time, you know, they've seen housinges rise by a,000%. Which I get it, that's happened in most places across the country. But people still blame Democrat policy for that. For some reason, the population has grown by hundreds of percent. Because we have an extremely high quality of life. And then the policy changes swung from red to blue, which has changed the landscape of this entire city. And it's made a lot of people really mad. Now, I get comments all day like this on my channel. uh you know people just going to the very dramatics of it being a hell hole and escape as fast as you can. Now are many of these dramatic? Of course. And everybody has a little bit of keyboard warrior in them, right? But do these people absolutely feel that way? Yeah, they do. And what's more interesting is that once you leave Denver proper, it turns purple really fast and then red just outside of that. You know, you can drive from downtown Denver in 20 minutes and be in a solidly Republican voting county. Personally, I do think that 90% of people are amazing and we all want the same thing. We want to be happy. We want to have good neighbors. We want to feel safe. And most people, I believe, are pretty moderate and very sensible people. You know, it's the 5% at either side that we hear of though with social media amplifying the hate, amplifying that message. And the mass media running 24 hours a day, they have to make everything so divisive to continue to get people to watch. And then you just get that in your feed every single day and you're doom scrolling and you know, subliminal messages, brainwashing, whatever you want to apply it to. Like when you see the same message over and over and over and over again, you start to buy into it. When you amplify that message from every angle, Democrats are ruining Denver. You know, move away as fast as you can. It's all Californians now who are ruining the state. People hear that. And I do think that leads to a sharp decline in our popularity, meaning less people moving here and more people wanting to move away. But what is it really like here? you know, um, everybody's opinion is going to be different. My view on being here is coming from, you know, someone who's not very political myself. I march down the middle of the road, which means both sides have issues with me. But if you are trying to navigate our market on the sell side or on the buy side, just scan this QR code and you're going to get the most up-to-date information on what the Denver market is currently doing today.
Media Polarization Effects
Finding Right Community Fit
[17:53] Or you can just call me, text me, reach out. I'd be happy to chat with you. But what I see is that if you're very liberal and you want to live close to downtown, it's great. And if you're very conservative and you want a horse property, it's going to be great. If you're friendly to people and you look for the best in the human race, you're going to find friendly people who are willing to help each other. And if you're down in the dumps in life all the time and looking for who's going to take advantage of you, then you're going to find a lot of people that are angry and wanting to take advantage of you. Now, I'm a big believer in what you look for, you find. And I like to look for people who are ecstatic to be here. People who wake up and still can't believe that those mountains are in our backyard and we get to escape to them whenever we want. And you know, I find people who think the same. But if you are wondering what areas are losing population the fastest around the Denver metro area, watch this
Frequently Asked Questions
How much has Denver's price per square foot dropped since 2022?
Denver proper closed at roughly $419 per square foot in 2022 and around $337 per square foot as of September 2025. That's about a 20% decline. Some neighborhoods are down 25% or more, even though the metro median sales price looks roughly flat over the same period.
Is Denver still gaining population?
Yes, but barely compared to the past decade. Net migration was about 43,500 in 2015 and just over 13,000 in 2025, a 69.6% drop. Denver is still adding residents on net, but the pace has slowed dramatically and that shift is a major reason housing supply now outweighs demand.
Why are Denver sellers leaving Colorado entirely?
In my experience, sellers cite politics, cost of living, and concerns about homelessness, crime, and safety as the main reasons. Top destinations include Texas, Tennessee, Florida, Idaho, and the Carolinas. Many also want to be closer to family or move somewhere they feel matches their values better than current Denver leadership.
Are Denver property taxes actually high?
No. Colorado property taxes are the third lowest in the country. Income and sales taxes are also reasonable compared to states like California or Illinois. But nearly 70% of Denver voters feel taxes are high, largely because overall cost of living, housing, and insurance have climbed together over the past several years.
How did the 2022 inclusionary housing ordinance affect Denver prices?
The ordinance required new developments to include below-market units or pay a fee. Building permits in Denver dropped up to 31% afterward, while neighboring Aurora saw permits increase. Less new supply with continued demand puts upward pressure on per-unit costs, which is the opposite of the affordability the policy was designed to create.
What are the top concerns of Denver voters right now?
According to the Colorado Polling Institute, the three biggest concerns are homelessness, affordable housing, and crime or drug problems. Cost of living, infrastructure, and balanced budget have moved up the list recently. Illegal immigration concern dropped to about 9%, partly because the busing situation at the border has slowed significantly.
Is it a good time to buy a home in Denver?
It depends on your timeline, but inventory is at multi-year highs and sellers are negotiating more than they have in years. Buyers willing to look past headlines and focus on long-term fundamentals can find real value, especially in neighborhoods that have already corrected 20 to 25% from peak pricing.
How can I get current Denver market data?
You can text or call me at (303) 552-4804 or sign up for my weekly Denver market email at sellitfastdenver.com. I send neighborhood-level price per square foot trends, inventory shifts, and days on market data every week so you can make decisions based on real numbers, not headlines.
Thinking about buying or selling in Denver?
Call or text (303) 552-4804 for a no-pressure conversation about your situation.
Leave a Reply
