Blog > The Denver Market Just CRASHED 10% (In 30 Days!)
Denver Median Home Price Just Dropped 10% in One Month
Denver proper just posted the biggest single-month median price drop I can find in 15+ years, falling from $610,000 in June to $547,000 in July 2025, a decline north of 10%.
How much did Denver home prices drop in July 2025?
The Denver proper median sale price fell from $610,000 in June to $547,000 in July 2025, a drop of over 10% in a single month.
I went back through the data to 2009 and could not find another single-month drop that big. The closest comparison I found was a 13% decline in 2008, but that played out over a full 12-month period, not 30 days.
Zoom out to the entire metro (Boulder down to Castle Rock) and the picture is calmer. The metro median moved from $580,000 to $565,000, a $15,000 dip that's seasonally normal. Year-over-year, Denver proper is down 4.4%, sitting in a range between roughly $525,000 and $600,000.
So the headline 10% drop is real, but it's a Denver proper number, not a metro-wide collapse. Some submarkets are actually up. Centennial is up 7.1% year-over-year, and Littleton is up 2% year-over-year with only a $12,000 month-over-month dip.
Why is Denver inventory at a 13-year high?
Active listings in the Denver metro hit over 25,000 units in July 2025, up 27% year-over-year and the highest level since 2011-2012.
New listings are only up 7% year-over-year, which is normal. The pile-up is happening because homes aren't closing. Pending listings are up 7% year-over-year (more buyers are writing offers), but closed sales are down 1.4%.
The gap is contract fallout. I was out this week showing houses that have been under contract once or twice already and came back on. Inspections, financing, appraisals, buyers getting cold feet, take your pick. Deals are falling apart at a rate I haven't seen in years.
Days in the MLS climbed to 46. That's not historically alarming, but after years of homes moving in a weekend, it feels much longer to sellers. Months of supply sits at 4.4, which is technically a buyer's market. Showings average about 9 per listing before going under contract, and 4 per month while active.
Is Denver a buyer's market or seller's market right now?
With 4.4 months of supply, Denver is officially a buyer's market for the first time in years.
Technically 4.4 months is closer to balanced than extreme, but it feels like a heavy buyer's market because we've been in a hard seller's market for so long. The psychology hasn't caught up with the math yet.
The sub-$500,000 first-time buyer segment is getting hit the hardest. The math is brutal: for a lot of my clients, renting is meaningfully cheaper than buying right now at that price point. I've had recent buyers do the spreadsheet and decide to keep renting, and honestly the numbers back them up.
But Denver isn't one market. It's a stack of micro-markets. Centennial is up 7.1% year-over-year. Littleton is holding steady. Parker tells a different story again. Before you panic-sell or panic-buy, check your specific neighborhood and price band, not the citywide headline.
How should Denver sellers price their home in this market?
Sellers who overshoot list price today typically net less in 4 to 6 months than sellers who price correctly out of the gate.
Temper your expectations. You're going to negotiate more, and you're not going to get what you would have gotten in 2022. That's just the reality.
The trap is listing high and chasing the market down. I track what I thought a home would sell for, what the seller wanted to list at, and what we actually closed at. The data is pretty consistent: overpricing costs you real money once you factor in carrying costs, price reductions, and the stigma of sitting on the MLS for 60+ days.
Use absorption rate to price. If there are 10 active homes in your neighborhood and only 1 went under contract in the last 30 days, that means roughly one buyer per month at that price point. Your job is to be the next one to sell, not the prettiest listing that sits.
Is now a good time to buy a house in Denver?
Denver inventory typically drops 5-10% from June to January every year, with prices often following the same path.
If you're a buyer, this is your window. You have leverage you haven't had in years, more inventory to choose from, and sellers who are finally willing to negotiate on price, repairs, and concessions.
The tradeoff: inventory will keep shrinking through January. So while prices may soften another 5-10% by winter, the specific home you want may not be available. That's the buyer's tension to manage.
A few rules I give my buyers. Don't be a jerk and lowball 20% under ask, you'll just get ignored. Do run real comps on closed sales in the last 60 days. Check how many active listings are competing in that exact neighborhood and price band, and how many went pending in the last 30 days. That ratio tells you exactly how aggressive your offer can be without losing the house.
What's happening with Denver contracts falling through?
I've personally shown multiple homes this week that have been under contract once or twice before coming back on the market.
Contract fallout is the quiet story behind the inventory pile-up. Pending sales are up 7% year-over-year, but closed sales are down 1.4%. That gap is deals dying after going under contract.
A few things are driving it. Inspection objections are sharper because buyers know they have leverage and competing options. Financing is tighter, especially in the sub-$500K range where DTI ratios are getting squeezed by insurance and HOA increases. Appraisals are coming in below contract price more often as comps soften. And some buyers are simply walking during their due diligence window after seeing something else they like better.
For sellers, this means you can't celebrate when you go under contract. You're not sold until you close. Build in a buffer on your timeline and don't make irreversible moves (like writing a non-contingent offer on your next house) until the inspection objection deadline passes.
Video Chapters
Full Video Transcript
Full transcript from this video, organized by chapter. Click any timestamp to jump to that moment in the video.
Denver Market Overview
[0:00] Denver has just seen the single biggest monthly price drop ever. And we're going to take a look what's going on. It's the beginning of August. July numbers are out. Summer has been in full swing. And there's some anomalies out there. So, what is happening? Well, we're going to start with the inventory like we always do. So, new listings, we're looking at a three-year time frame here. New listings are up 7%. Nothing out of the ordinary, but active listings right now are up 27% year-over-year. This is the headline out there. This is what everybody's saying.
Inventory & New Listings
[0:31] And in fact, we haven't seen this much inventory since 2012, 2011 now, even over 25,000 units for sale in the Denver metro area. Pending listings. What's nice here is we are up 7% year-over-year, which is great. That means more people are attempting to buy this year than they did last year. But closed listings are down 1.4%. And we're seeing a lot of this out there. We're seeing a lot of contracts fall out of contracts. I was just out earlier this week with multiple houses that have been under contract once or twice before.
Contract Failures Analysis
[1:06] Whether that's inspections, financing, whatever, that's what's happening. So, even though more buyers are putting offers out there and getting them accepted, not as many closings are happening, which is interesting. Days in the MLS, of course, is rising up to 46. Not too crazy, but again, this is a number that's in a vacuum here. It feels like a lot longer. month supply is at 4.4 months, which is officially a buyers market. Uh supposed to be a balanced market, but really we've been in such a sellers market for so long, it feels like an extreme buyers market right now because we haven't seen this amount of inventory since again 2012, at least not this many months of inventory. Okay.
[1:46] Then showings, we've got average about nine per listing per uh before going under contract and then about four showings a month per listing. Okay, close price. Here's the big story. Sorry to keep you waiting. Uh, the entire metro area is what we're looking at now. So, you're talking all the way up from Boulder all the way down to Castle Rock. Uh, we went from 580 down to 565, $15,000. That is totally normal. Okay.
[2:14] What is not normal is Denver, Denver proper. We went from 610,000 in June as the median price down to 547,000. That's north of a 10% drop in one single month. And I went back and I tried to find in history when the last time we've had a price drop that big in one single month and I couldn't find it. I'm looking back the last 15 16 years here all the way to 2009 and we don't have it. I even looked up at 2008 to see what I could find historically. The best I could find was this article uh about a 13% price drop in 2008, but this is over a 12-month period. Now, we are not there for the 12-month period. We are down 4.4% here year-over-year, but we're just kind of stuck in this range here from about 525 up to about 600,000. But then we can look at some other places, you know, thinking it's all doom and gloom out there. And we can look at Centennial, and man, they're up 7.1% year-over-year, right? Let's take a look at Littleton. They're up 2% year-over-year and only dropped by 12,000 month overmonth. Uh, Parker, you know, this is this is where you got to dig closer. There's a lot of micro markets in Denver, and different markets are doing different things. The first time homeowner market, sub $500,000 price, is getting hit pretty darn hard because it's cheaper to rent for a lot of people than it is to buy. Uh, I've got some recent clients that making the same decision that they would rather rent because it's a better price than it is to buy right now in that price range.
Price Drops & Trends
First-Time Homebuyer Segment
[3:49] So, it's very interesting. And if you have any questions, you know, I'm going to urge you, feel free, reach out. I'm available anytime. Call me and text me. I actually answer my phone. Or you can just get on my weekly email, kind of stay up todate on what the market is doing. Now, what does this mean going forward here for buyers and sellers? Well, if you're on the sell side, okay, what I will say is tamper your expectations.
Negotiation & Pricing Strategy
[4:13] You're going to have to negotiate more. You're not going to get what you think you might be able to get. That's just the reality of it. And you're going to have to play ball with buyers. If you overshoot the price out of the gate, you will make less money in four to six months when you finally close than pricing it right immediately. I know it's painful and us agents are just they we lie to you all the time, right? But some of us have been doing this long enough to know and we track what we thought it would sell for, what the homeowner wanted to list it for, and what we ended up closing at at the end of the day. and it's usually pretty accurate. Okay? Uh we're not here to tell you to list it low just so we have an easy sale. Trust me, that's never anyone's objection in our space. Uh it's to get you as much as possible. And when I tell you pricing it right out of the gate is how you will get as much as possible. That's what's going to happen.
[5:05] But we do this every single day. We know you only do this once every 5 to 10 years. So we understand there's a disconnect and we got to work together to get there. If you're on the buy side, now is your time to shine. Okay. Now, inventory will be decreasing from now until January. It happens every single year. Prices will follow. Generally, we're in a 5 to 10% range from June to January as far as price fluctuation goes. So, you can technically get a better deal on a house in the coming months. But with decreased inventory, too, is what you're looking for going to actually be available? So, you have room to negotiate. Don't be a jerk about stuff and put offers in 20% below asking, but run the comps, run the numbers, look at the active inventory, and see how many are pending in that same neighborhood. So, if there's, for example, this is absorption rate positioning, right? When I talk with the seller, I go, "Hey, there's 10 currently active and there's one under contract.
Seasonal Market Dynamics
Positioning & Future Outlook
[5:57] That means there's one buyer in the last 30 days. So, now, how do we price your home with the same features and and uh benefits in the proper price to be the next one to sell within the next 30 days?" cuz there might only be one buyer over the next 30 days. Look at the neighborhood, see how much is for sale, and then you can position your offer properly on the buy side. And again, if you need to reach out and want clarity on what is a crazy market, just call me, text me, get on my weekly email. And if you are thinking about moving here and you're wondering where you should be checking out, check out this video. goes over some of the hottest hotspots right now in the Denver metro
Frequently Asked Questions
What was Denver's median home price in July 2025?
The median sale price in Denver proper was $547,000 in July 2025, down from $610,000 in June. That's a single-month drop of over 10%. The broader Denver metro median came in at $565,000, down from $580,000 the prior month, which is a more typical seasonal move.
How many homes are for sale in Denver right now?
There were over 25,000 active listings across the Denver metro in July 2025, up 27% year-over-year. That's the highest active inventory count Denver has seen since 2011-2012. New listings are only up 7%, so the buildup is driven by homes sitting longer and contracts falling through, not a flood of new sellers.
Are Denver home prices going to keep falling?
Seasonally, Denver prices typically drift 5-10% lower from June to January as inventory thins and demand cools. So further softening through winter is likely. Whether prices keep falling into 2026 depends on mortgage rates, job growth, and how much current inventory clears. Year-over-year, Denver proper is down 4.4%, not crashing.
Which Denver suburbs are still appreciating in 2025?
Centennial is up 7.1% year-over-year and Littleton is up 2% year-over-year with only a $12,000 month-over-month dip. Denver is a collection of micro-markets, so the citywide headline of a 10% drop doesn't apply everywhere. Always check your specific neighborhood and price band before making decisions.
Should I sell my Denver home now or wait?
If you need to sell in the next 12 months, list now and price it correctly. Inventory drops from August through January, but so do prices and buyer activity. Sellers who overshoot list price typically net less 4-6 months later than sellers who price right out of the gate and avoid the stale-listing stigma.
Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Denver right now?
For most homes under $500,000, renting is currently cheaper than buying on a monthly basis once you factor in mortgage, taxes, insurance, and HOA. Several of my recent first-time buyer clients ran the numbers and chose to keep renting. That math is a big reason the entry-level price point is softening fastest.
How long are Denver homes taking to sell?
Average days on the MLS climbed to 46 in July 2025. That's not historically alarming, but it feels much slower after years of homes moving in a weekend. Listings average about 9 showings before going under contract, and roughly 4 showings per month while actively listed.
Thinking about buying or selling in Denver?
Call or text (303) 552-4804 for a no-pressure conversation about your situation.
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