Blog > Major Changes Happening in the Denver Housing Market
Denver Housing Market Update: Inventory, Rates, and Fed Shifts
Denver's September numbers are in, and the market is shifting fast. Active listings sit at 2011 highs, days on market jumped 23%, and the Fed's Lisa Cook decision changes the rate outlook.
What do September 2025 Denver listing numbers show?
New listings rose from August to September, an anomaly that happens roughly once every 5 to 6 years.
That uptick matters because seasonality usually pulls new listings down heading into fall. If October keeps climbing, we could see more price suppression across the metro.
Active listings are up 15% year-over-year. That's slightly cooler than the prior two years, but it puts us at inventory levels we haven't seen since 2011, back when we were still recovering from 2008. Sellers are competing against a much deeper bench of homes.
Pending listings climbed over 5% year-over-year, and closed listings rose about 8%. Buy-side activity is real, just not as strong as I'd like to see (I want 10 to 15%). The takeaway: demand exists, but supply is winning the tug-of-war right now in most Denver neighborhoods.
How long are Denver homes sitting on the market?
Days in MLS climbed to 58 on average across the Denver metro area, up 23% year-over-year.
That's a meaningful jump, and it's driven by sellers pushing too hard on price. When you list above the competition, you don't just sit. You end up doing two or three price drops to catch back up, and by then buyers have already passed you over.
The showing data tells the same story. The average listing takes about 14 showings to go under contract, and homes are getting roughly four showings per month. That's about one showing per week. If you're not getting that pace, your price (not your marketing) is usually the issue.
I've been selling Denver real estate since 2010, and the pattern is always the same. Sellers who price right out of the gate net more than sellers who chase the market down. Starting high to "leave room" almost always backfires.
Are Denver home prices going up or down?
Closed prices are up 9% year-over-year, but values have been roughly flat going back to 2022.
The headline number hides what's actually happening on the ground. Some Denver neighborhoods are up 15 to 20%. Others are down 10 to 20%. It's a true micro market environment, and zip code averages won't tell you what your specific block is doing.
Newer built homes (anything constructed in the last few years) sitting near active new build communities are struggling the hardest. Builders are still offering incentives, rate buydowns, and price cuts, and resale sellers can't compete with that on financing.
Month supply of inventory crossed four months, which old-school rules call a balanced market. We haven't seen that much supply since 2012. If you want to know what your home is actually worth today, you need a neighborhood-level analysis, not a Zestimate.
How does the Lisa Cook Fed decision affect Denver home values?
With Lisa Cook staying on the Federal Reserve Board, the path to aggressive rate cuts just got longer.
Here's my read. Trump tried to remove Cook over mortgage fraud allegations, which would have given him four Fed appointees. The Fed is supposed to be independent, but politics rarely works that cleanly. Trump is a real estate guy with real estate friends, and the playbook would have been to push rates down aggressively to juice prices and activity.
That path is closed for now. So instead of a fast drop, I expect a slow decline. My forecast: we see rates in the 5s by Q1 or Q2 of 2026, but we probably don't touch the 4s within 2026.
For Denver, that means no sudden demand surge this spring. Inventory stays elevated, price growth stays modest, and the buyers who are out there keep negotiating from a position of strength.
Should I buy or sell a Denver home right now?
Buyers have leverage with 4+ months of inventory, and sellers need to price against today's competition, not last spring's comps.
If you're buying, this is a window. Prices are depressed in many neighborhoods, sellers are negotiating, and you can lock in a home in the low 6s on rate. When rates drop half a point to three-quarters of a point, you refinance. If they drop further, refinance again. Lock the price now, because if rates fall a full point over the next 6 to 12 months, prices could jump 5 to 10% fast.
If you're selling, throw out comps from 3 to 6 months ago. They're not setting prices anymore. Your competition is. Buyers in your neighborhood are looking at 15 or 20 active listings and choosing the best value among them. Price against that pool, not against what your neighbor closed at last March, and you'll actually sell.
Video Chapters
Full Video Transcript
Full transcript from this video, organized by chapter. Click any timestamp to jump to that moment in the video.
Market Inventory Surge
[0:00] How is the most recent decision on the Fed chair, Lisa Cook, staying in place and how is that affecting your Denver home value? Well, that's what we're going to talk about today. It's the beginning of October and the September numbers are out and we're going to check out what's going on and see what's actually going on with your biggest asset, your home in the Denver metro area. And to start off, like we always do, getting right into it, new listings.
[0:22] This is the big topic. Uh we actually bucked a little bit of a trend here, which is an anomaly. We went up in listings from August to September, which does not happen but once every 5 to 6 years. We're looking at a 5-year history here on this chart. So, we're going to watch that closely and see what this next 30 days does. Uh, if we keep going up in new listings, you know, we might be in for more price suppression. Active listings, this is what everybody's talking about. We are up 15% yearover-year still uh which is a little down from previous years, but we're still at quite a few active listings.
[0:59] And if we look back here, we haven't seen this many active on the market since 2011, right? We were still in the recovery from 2008. So, this is what you've got going on. You have competition out there if you're a seller. Pending listings. What's great though is we're up over 5% in pending listings, meaning there is some more activity on the buy side. And closed listings were up about 8% year-over-year. Great sign overall. I'd like to see that be more 10, 12, 15%.
Price Competition Rising
[1:31] But again, we're going to pay attention to this over the next few months, find out what's going on. Days in MLS creeping up there as it does this time of year. We're at 58 days on the market on average across the Denver metro area, which is up 23% year-over-year. A lot of sellers are still pushing it on price, which is creating a dangerous situation where you have to do massive price drops in order to catch up with the competition because there's probably 10, 15, 20 other homes for sale in your specific neighborhood. Month supply of inventory, this is up there at over four months right now. And that's considered a balanced market by the old rule of thumb. Again, we haven't seen this much month supply of inventory since 2012 now. Okay? So, pay attention to this. If you're on the market to sell, you have to be priced right, which does not mean pushing it in price. It's going to bite you in the butt. Uh, and you're going to end up losing more money than you would have if you would have just started at the right price. Uh it's hard to always prove that, but trust me, when we've been doing this for as long as we have and been doing this over 15 years, that's exactly the narrative that happens. Uh amount of showings right now to going under contract, the average is 14 and we're getting about four showings per listing per month. So that's one showing per week. Now, the closed price, which is what you want to know, we are up 9% yearover-year. Uh, so we're kind of flat over the last two almost three years now going back into 2022. Um, you know, it's it's just kind of creeping along. And if you've been paying attention in your neighborhood, you know, it may not feel like that because some neighborhoods are up drastically 15 to 20%. Other neighborhoods are down 10, 15, 20%.
Showings and Market Activity
New Construction Market Shift
[3:21] newer built homes uh built in the last few years close to other newbu communities are struggling uh pretty hard right now. So it's it's micro markets all throughout the metro area. Uh and so if you need help kind of narrowing it down and putting your pulse on it, what I want you to do is just feel free reach out to me. You can call me, text me, or you can just get on my weekly email here, scanning this QR code to keep up to date on the best Denver market information you can have. Now, if you're new here, my name is Alex Salana.
[3:55] I've been doing this since 2010, helping buyers, sellers, and very numbersbased. And when it comes to something like this Lisa Cook decision and why it's so important. So, if you don't know, uh it was Lisa Cook is being indicted, I believe, uh by Trump for mortgage fraud. He wants to remove her to put in somebody that he appoints into the Fed, which would mean then I think he would have four people that are appointed to the Fed. Uh which, you know, on the surface the Fed is supposed to operate independently of the government, but we all know that it doesn't quite work like that in politics. Uh, and if you believe that it does operate independently no matter who's there, I love you for being so innocent. Uh, but I don't believe that's exactly how it works. But what this then means is that, you know, Trump is a real estate guy. All of his friends are real estate people, right? And so what they're going to want to do to try to boost real estate prices and activity is to lower interest rates. And that was the whole idea with getting Lisa Cook out of there so he could put somebody in and then start aggressively lowering rates. That's what I believe the agenda was. Now that that cannot happen, uh, and Lisa Cook is going to stay in there.
[5:06] We might just hover with interest rates. I think we'll see a slow decline in interest rates. I think we'll see into the fives come the first quarter into the second quarter of 2026, but I don't think we're going to see fours within 2026. And so, it just kind of changes that dynamic of what's going to happen this coming spring. So, what do you do with this information? If you're a buyer, uh I think there is an opportunity in our current market right now where you buy with some depressed prices, uh and you get a not so great interest rate in the low sixes. And then when interest rates drop by half to 3/4 of a point, you do a refi. If they keep dropping even more, do another refi. and but lock in that price currently because if rates do drop by a full point or more over the next 6 to 12 months, then we're going to see prices escalate 5 to 10%.
Interest Rate Outlook
Buyer Strategy & Pricing
[5:57] And it's going to happen fast. If you're on the sell side, uh you need to price very realistically. And I don't mean closed properties in the last 3 to 6 months. Those are no longer setting prices in your neighborhood. What's setting prices is your competition because that's what other buyers are going to be looking at. If you have 15, 20 homes for sale in your neighborhood, they're going to be looking at all of those and basing their decision off of those, not what closed a few months ago.
[6:26] So, don't get caught into that trap. Um, again, my name is Alex Salania. If you have any questions, feel free, reach out, call me, text me. Uh, and until the next
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current month supply of inventory in Denver?
Denver metro is sitting at just over four months of supply as of September 2025. That's considered a balanced market under the old rule of thumb, and it's the highest level we've seen since 2012. It signals real negotiating power for buyers in most neighborhoods.
Are Denver home prices dropping in 2025?
Metro-wide, closed prices are actually up 9% year-over-year. But that average hides huge variation. Some neighborhoods are up 15 to 20%, others are down 10 to 20%. Newer built homes near active new construction communities are struggling the most right now.
When will mortgage rates drop in Denver?
I expect a slow decline rather than a sharp drop. My forecast is that 30-year rates touch the 5s by Q1 or Q2 of 2026, but probably don't reach the 4s within 2026. The Lisa Cook decision keeping the Fed more independent likely slows the pace of cuts.
How many showings does a Denver home need to sell?
The current average is 14 showings before a home goes under contract. Active listings are getting roughly four showings per month, or about one per week. If your home isn't hitting that pace, price is almost always the reason, not marketing or photos.
Should I wait for rates to drop before buying in Denver?
Probably not. If rates fall a full point over the next 6 to 12 months, prices could jump 5 to 10% quickly as demand returns. Buying now at depressed prices and refinancing later often beats waiting and competing with more buyers at lower rates.
Why are days on market increasing in Denver?
Days on market hit 58 in September, up 23% year-over-year. The main driver is sellers pricing too aggressively against a 15% larger pool of active listings. Overpriced homes sit, then require multiple price drops to catch the competition, which extends the timeline.
How do I price my Denver home in a balanced market?
Stop using closed sales from 3 to 6 months ago. Those aren't setting prices anymore. Look at your active competition (the 15 or 20 homes buyers are currently comparing yours against) and price at or slightly below the best value in that pool to win attention.
Thinking about buying or selling in Denver?
Call or text (303) 552-4804 for a no-pressure conversation about your situation.
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