Blog > Housing Inventory Just EXPLODED and Here's What You Should Know
Denver Housing Inventory Jumped 22%: What It Actually Means
Active housing inventory is up 22% year-over-year, but in Denver almost as many homes are being pulled off the market as are closing. Here's what that really tells us about October 2025.
Is rising housing inventory actually good news for buyers?
Homes.com reported nearly 450,000 listings in September with active inventory up 22% year-over-year.
Their spin is that momentum is building, but I'd push back on that read. September into October is not when inventory normally rises. In Denver, we typically lose about 50% of active inventory between August and January as we head into the holidays. That's been the rhythm for as long as I've been selling here (since 2010).
So a 22% jump on top of a season where listings should be shrinking is unusual nationally. Redfin's buyer versus seller chart shows the gap between sellers and buyers widening to levels we haven't seen since around 2013. More homes plus fewer buyers is not a momentum signal. It's a softening signal. Denver is actually behaving more normally than the rest of the country right now, which is the good news in all this.
What does Denver's October MLS data actually show?
Straight from the Denver MLS for the last 22 days: 4,277 active listings, about 4,000 under contract, 3,900 closed, and 3,700 withdrawn or expired.
Those numbers are tick for tat. About 4,000 homes are coming on, 4,000 are going under contract, 4,000 are closing, and 4,000 are being pulled off. That's a balanced market by the math, even if it doesn't feel balanced in every neighborhood.
The withdrawn and expired number is the one most people miss. Sellers who can't get the offer they want are pulling their homes rather than cutting price. That keeps active inventory looking lower than it actually is on a demand basis, because those houses haven't really sold, they've just left the public board.
Denver is tracking its normal seasonal curve. New listings peaked in June, active listings peaked in September, and both should keep declining through December before climbing again in spring.
Why is median price per square foot more accurate than median sale price?
Denver's median sale price per square foot is down 3.5% year-over-year, while median sale price often looks flat or up.
Median sale price gets distorted by which homes happen to close that month. In my own University Hills neighborhood, the published numbers say we're up about 6% year-over-year, but it feels more like down 5 to 10% for a certain segment. That gap is the mix shift.
When more million-dollar homes close than $400,000 homes, the median pulls up even though individual homes aren't appreciating. Price per square foot strips that out because it normalizes for size and price tier.
If you're trying to track what your house is actually worth, watch median sale price per square foot for your zip code and your specific price band. I can show you Denver neighborhoods down 10 to 20% by that metric, even while the headline median looks fine. It's the more honest number.
Why is the Denver first-time buyer market struggling?
In the $400,000 to $500,000 Denver range, renting is roughly 30 to 35% cheaper than buying the same property.
That's the entry-level home category here. The math is brutal for a typical first-time buyer putting 5% down (not $100,000 down, that buyer mostly doesn't exist at this price point). Add HOAs, insurance, and a rate just above 6%, and you're looking at $600 to $800 a month more to own versus rent the exact same place.
That's a hard hurdle to clear, especially when groceries are running $300 to $400 a week and dining out is $100 per couple without drinks. Wages haven't kept up with that combined cost stack.
The result is fewer buyers competing for $400K to $500K homes and relatively more competing for million-dollar-plus inventory. That's why price per square foot is softer at the bottom of the market and why the median can hide what's really happening to entry-level values.
Where are Denver mortgage rates heading into late 2025?
30-year conforming mortgage rates are hovering just above 6%, almost identical to September and October 2024.
We didn't dip into the 5s this year like some forecasts called for. The Fed has been cutting for about a year and a half, and mortgage rates have barely moved because they're only loosely tied to the federal funds rate. They track the 10-year Treasury and inflation expectations much more closely.
The current concerns keeping rates sticky: tariffs starting to show up in inflation data, a stock market that still looks strong, and no clear weakness signal that would force the Fed's hand into aggressive cuts. Real pocketbook pain (groceries, eating out) isn't the same as the macro data the Fed watches.
Last year rates drifted lower through year-end. Whether we repeat that depends on the next two inflation prints. I'd plan around a 6% rate, not a 5% rate.
Video Chapters
Full Video Transcript
Full transcript from this video, organized by chapter. Click any timestamp to jump to that moment in the video.
Market Inventory Overview
[0:00] Homes.com just said an active inventory increase of 22% year-over-year is actually a good thing in case you didn't know. And in Denver, nearly as many houses are being pulled off the market as are actually selling because of lack of getting the right offer. It is the third week of October. My name's Alex. I talk about real estate. I talk about Denver real estate. And if you want to talk about real estate, you can feel free. call me, text me, or scan this QR code if you're just going to wait on the sidelines and want to see what's going on to get on my weekly email to get you the best updated information about what is actually going on in the Denver market. So, third week of October here and this article just came out through homes.com, which is a large somewhat trusted resource out there. and their spin on it is rather interesting because they're stating that nearly 450,000 homes listed in September is a signal that momentum is building. Okay, active inventory is 22% higher than it was in 2024. So, here's their take on it. And I will give them credit for this because I don't know, even spinsters uh would probably not agree with their take on things. And I'm going to show you why.
Active Listings Data Analysis
[1:09] Uh this is not the time of year that anyone would ever expect inventory to be increasing because cycllically we drop at least here in Denver and I know this number extrapolates out to most cities across the country. You we usually drop about 50% of inventory from August until about January before it starts up building again based on kind of buyer and seller activity. We're going to the holidays. Not a great time to sell. Blah blah blah. We've heard it our whole lives. uh prices get depressed over the next few months and then they start creeping up again. It happens every year like clockwork. So, I'm kind of surprised that they would come out with this data. And to show you why I think this is such an odd thing is that Redfin tracks the buyer and seller dynamic. And this orange is the amount of sellers in the market and this blue is the amount of buyers. And we can see that gap is increasing. In fact, this buyer demand hasn't been that since 2013 approximately. Uh, so having an extra 22% in inventory and an uptick in September that is not normal because I will show you more what normal is like is this. So this is the amount of active listings. This is a heartbeat over the last 15 years. You've seen this chart a bunch of times and it always starts going down, right? Last year the peak was September. starts going down down down down for new listings coming for active listings on the market. And new listings follows a very very similar trend. June being about the peak in most years and it bottoming out in December.
[2:40] June being the peak, December being the bottom and we ticked up a little bit and now we were not as extreme as most of the rest of the cities in the country which is interesting to look at. We should be getting less new listings coming out of the market, not more. Because when we dig into the data a little bit further, we're going to see, okay, going in directly from the MLS, this is straight from the source, uh, the amount of active properties in the last 22 days, it's October 22nd right now, so this month was 4,277.
New Listings and Closings
[3:14] Okay, great. The amount to go under contract in that same time frame, 4,000. About even couple hundred more. The amount closed in the last 22 days, 3,900. Still about the same. Then we get to withdrawn and expired. These are properties being pulled off the market. It's 3,700. So all these numbers are very much tick for tat. Uh so we're pulling about 4,000 off the market, 4,000 are closing, 4,000 are coming on.
[3:42] Okay, we seem pretty balanced. We are not in a weird imbalance, which I am glad to see, which means we're following the normal yearly trend. And if you're watching price, want to know what's going on with your house value, uh the number you should be looking at is not the median close price for your zip code, for the city, uh or even your neighborhood. Because I live in a perfect neighborhood that the the data feels way off. It feels like we're down 5 to 10% year-over-year for a certain segment of houses and then the numbers are saying we're up like 6% year-over-year here in U-Hills. Uh feels a little bit odd. So the number you want to watch is actually median sale price per square foot. This is painting a different picture. So through Redfin, we can see here that we're actually down by 3.5% compared to last year. Why is that?
Median Price Trends
First-Time Buyer Market
[4:35] Well, the firsttime home buyer market is struggling. 400,000 $500,000 homes, which yes, that's first-time home buyer category here in Denver. Uh it's often cheaper to rent than it is to buy by a lot. We're talking 30 35% cheaper to rent than it is to buy that same place. HOAs, interest rates, the amount of down payment for a first-time home buyer is likely around 5%. Uh it's not going to be $100,000 down on a $400,000 property.
[5:03] That buyer typically does not exist. So, when you crunch the numbers, it's going to be $600, $800 cheaper to rent that same exact place than it is to buy. That's a really tough hurdle to get over. So, if you have a neighborhood that's got four or $500,000 houses and you have million-dollar plus houses, there are more buyers for those million-doll plus houses than there are those $400,000 houses. And as more of a million-doll home close versus 400,000, it skews that median price. But when you break it down to price per square foot, it starts to balance things out. And I can show you a lot of neighborhoods that are down 10 to 20%. Now, good news is is that interest rates are slowly creeping down. We're just hovering above 6%, but this is exactly what we did last year if you go and look at that chart. And in fact, I'll show it to you here real quick. Um, so even though, you know, we're talking about lowering interest rates. Um, you know, is this out of the ordinary? Not really. So, going back on a two-year chart, let's just look at the 30-year conforming regular loan. We can see September into October of last year, we were hovering just above 6%. We didn't tick down into the fives this year. So far, we're just hovering above 6%. So, are we going to continue the trend that we did last year? Well, the talks out there being tariffs finally starting to show inflation. Uh stock market is strong, they don't see any weakness out there, even though we may feel it differently in our pocketbooks because going to the grocery store cost $300 to $400 a week. Uh and just to feed your family and then going to eat out is gosh, $100 per couple. even if you're not drinking these days for crying out loud. Um, you know, we'll see what they decide to do with interest rates if they're going to keep them flat. But interest rates have been coming down at the Fed for the last year and a half and we've barely see a drop in mortgage rates because they are not directly tied together. They're loosely tied together.
Interest Rates Discussion
Market Correlation Analysis
[7:04] They tend to follow each other, but we're bucking that trend. So, it's something to watch out for. Now again, if you want to chat about the market, I am here to talk with you. My name is Alex. I've been a local Denver agent since 2010. There's my cell phone. You can call me, text me. I actually answer. I actually respond. Or if you just again want to hang out of the sidelines, just keep an eye on things. Get on my weekly email. It's not going to be a bunch of BS. And until next week, we'll almost have monthly numbers out for a monthly update. Uh but you should watch this
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Denver in a buyer's market right now?
Denver is closer to balanced than most national markets. Actives, pendings, closings, and withdrawals are all running around 4,000 over the last 22 days. Buyers have leverage on price and inspection items, especially in the $400K to $500K range, but it's not a crash market.
Why are so many Denver homes being withdrawn from the market?
About 3,700 Denver listings were withdrawn or expired in the last 22 days. Sellers aren't getting the offers they want and would rather pull the home than reduce price. Many will relist in spring 2026 hoping for stronger demand and lower rates.
Are Denver home prices going up or down in 2025?
It depends on the metric. Median sale price often looks flat or slightly up because mix is shifting toward higher-priced homes. Median sale price per square foot, which is the more accurate measure, is down 3.5% year-over-year across Denver per Redfin.
Should I buy a Denver home now or wait for lower rates?
Rates have been stuck just above 6% for over a year and didn't drop into the 5s as predicted. Waiting has cost some buyers more in rising rent than they would have saved on rate. If the home and payment work today, buying makes sense. If they don't, wait.
Why is it cheaper to rent than buy in Denver?
For homes in the $400K to $500K range, renting runs about 30 to 35% cheaper than buying. The combination of 6%+ mortgage rates, HOAs, property tax, insurance, and low down payments makes the monthly cost of ownership $600 to $800 higher than equivalent rent.
Is fall a normal time for housing inventory to rise?
No, it's the opposite. Denver typically loses about 50% of its active inventory between August and January as the market heads into holidays. New listings peak in June and bottom out in December. National inventory rising 22% in September goes against that normal seasonal pattern.
What is the most accurate way to track my Denver home's value?
Watch median sale price per square foot in your zip code and price band, not the overall median sale price. Median price gets distorted by which homes happen to close. Price per square foot accounts for size differences and gives a cleaner read on whether values are actually moving.
Thinking about buying or selling in Denver?
Call or text (303) 552-4804 for a no-pressure conversation about your situation.
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