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Denver Market Overview

[0:00] Good news if you're a Denver homeowner. Things are looking up. It is spring here. It's the beginning of April and the market is springing and if you're on the buy side because activity has picked up a little bit. You can't sleep on things right now because stuff is going under contract fairly quickly if it's priced right and it looks right now. We are still very much in the tale of two markets and since the beginning of April, we're going to be able to break down all the numbers over the last month. Find out what's going on. Are we on trend? Where are we off trend? Is inventory still building? What is the actual value of your largest asset doing? New listings, this has been the big thing that you're seeing in the news, right? Supply and demand, all that. New listings are down half a percent year-over-year. So, this is the last 5 years that we're looking at here.

Inventory & New Listings

[0:43] If we zoom this out, we can kind of see, okay, we've got this slow trend on the upside, but are we finally hitting the balance point? And I think we actually might be. Active listings are up 2.1%. This is not a big deal. I would consider this virtually flat. Going from 18,800 where last year in March we had 18,400 go new. Few hundred more in that many thousands. Not a big deal. Okay. Pending listings. This is what we're watching cuz my prediction is that this year we are going to have quite a bit more transactions to the tune of 10 to 20% more than we have over the last few years. Now, for this year so far, pending is up 5.1%.

Pending Sales & Activity

[1:29] This is a breakout number. If we were looking at a stock chart here, we'd be going, hey, this is a notable number to look at. Last year in March, we were at 7,300. Year before that, we were at 6,500 and now we're at 7600. So, being up 5% is starting to gain some attention here. Now, closed listings were about flat, down half of a percent year-over-year. We've just had a lot more contracts falling out of contract, if you will, financing issues, inspection issues, what have you. Cold feet, doesn't matter. War starting, like that was a big issue. And so, you got just people hitting the pause button when they start to hear those headlines, right? Just it's just natural human behavior. But we're about flat yearoveryear. I'm really interested to see this next month, what we do over April and May. Some of the biggest closing months that we have in the Denver metro area. Now, the average days on the MLS is still up about 7% year-over-year. So, still about 60 days on average to go under contract. And then month supply break even. So, the month supply of inventory balances out the supply and demand. How many houses are on the market? How many are going under contract? And how many months would it take to sell out of all the inventory if no new listings hit the market? Right now, we're at 3.2, 2, which is pretty darn balanced in my opinion. I think this the way that we've interpreted this number is generally between four to 6 months has been a balanced market. However, that was a rule of thumb and that's also when people were moving on average every 5 to 7 years approximately with prices with interest rates. That number has steadily increased to more like once every 12 years. So if people are moving less, the month's supply of inventory has to be readjusted for what balanced look like.

Days on Market & Balance

[3:18] And I actually think balanced right now is around that 3 to four months of inventory, not necessarily 4 to 6 months. So we're just we're treading water here from year-over-year. Now, price per square foot is a number that I love to look at here because this separates out the dreamers and what they are asking for versus what they're getting in reality. It also helps balance out the median price because if things are just consistently if if million-doll plus buyers aren't as hurt as much by the interest rates, then more and more houses are selling that are more expensive, it's going to skew that median price up. The price per square foot helps kind of balance that all out.

Price Trends by Segment

[3:59] And so we can see we're down 1.1% year-over-year. We've just been trend water the last few years. Amount of shows to go pending is sitting at 10. The amount of shows per listing is peaking up to 6.3, which actually breaks our showings per listings from last year and more along the lines of 2024. So, we'll keep watching that to see what is happening there. And then the total median closed price, of course, you want to know that is down 2% year-over-year.

[4:25] Okay, I'm going to say that's flat, but we've had a pretty intense upswing so far from 540 all the way up to 570. So, that's a $30,000 increase so far just in the last two months. Totally normal this time of year. We'll see what it does if we just kind of flirt with the peaks of the last couple of years or if we actually break that over the next month or two. If it's going to break, it's going to happen in the next month or two, folks. That's just how the numbers go. Now, to break this down into the two different markets, we're talking sub 500,000. We're talking mostly town homes, condos, and entry- level single families in the Denver market. We're going to go over that. That median closed price doesn't matter here because we're separating it out by the price point. So, ignore this completely.

[5:09] Doesn't matter. Everything else does, though, however, new listings, we're up 3% in that category. Okay. Active listings, we are up 8%. year-over-year. So, 7,100 versus last year where we were at 6,600. That's quite a few more sub $500,000 houses. Why? Because interest rates are kicking a lot of buyers to the curb. A lot of properties are cheaper to rent than they are to buy in this price range. Pending listings. Now, pending listings is up significantly, 9.5%. So, even though we have a bunch of inventory and more stuff coming on the market, we're having a lot more buyers enter the market finally, people that have been sitting on the curb the last couple of years and they're finally going, "All right, honey. Interest rates aren't going down the way we thought we they would and it's time to move. It's time for it to finally happen." Closed listings up just a little bit 5%. Days in MLS is up 13.3%. So that goes along lines with the supply here. The month supply of inventory in this price range is up 6%.

[6:13] Okay. So again, overall we're at 0% on month supply of inventory. However, under 500,000, we are up. Price per square foot is down 4.9%. So this is what paints the picture of what the prices are doing within this category of houses. And we can see that they're down 5%. Now, they're up quite a bit over the last couple of months. Totally normal. And then the amount of showings to go pending here, nine similar. And then showings per listing is at 5.3, which is below the average for all the prices.

Sub-$500K Market Opportunity

[6:48] Now, to break this down on properties over 500,000, this is 500,000 to $30 million. It's a little bit of a different market. So, new listings are down 2.4%. Okay? So, inventory is shrinking a little bit. Active listings are down 1.3%. Inventory shrinking a little bit. Pending listings are up 3.2%. More going under contract, less stuff coming to the market. Supply and demand is balancing itself out here. Closed listings is down 1% year-over-year. Not a huge notable number. Days in the MLS up 1.9% at 53 days on average on the market. Month supply of inventory is down 3.1%.

[7:29] So inventory is tightening. Price per square foot here is up 1.1%. More expensive homes are doing better than the inexpensive homes. Okay. So there is where the opportunity lies. Showings to go under contract is 10 pretty much the same. And then showings per listing is 6.8. All right. So what are you to make of all this information? Here's where the opportunity lies. There's always an opportunity in the real estate market depending on what side of the coin that you're on. The opportunity here is in the sub $500,000 market. the first-time home buyer stuff. And yes, you are typically going to be paying more if you're just putting 5% down than you would to rent a property right now. If you're putting 20% down, that's likely pretty even or even a little bit in your favor on the buy side. But this still leaves room for negotiations, right? On condos, town homes, and single families under 500,000. There's quite a bit of inventory out there. And so, yes, you might have to suck it up for a few years until either interest rates drop or the market takes off on us again. and then you'll be in a much better position there. So, be on the lookout if you're on the buy side. First-time home buyers, I know it's tough, but do it. Get into the game while there's an opportunity here, while there's some fear on the sell side. You're going to get a much better deal. And if you are navigating this market, feel free, call me, text me, or you can download my relocation buyer guide here. It's going to answer so many of the questions that you have.

[8:50] I'd love to talk to you about what your goals are in the Denver market. Now, where do we go from here? Again, I do think we're going to have a big bump in transactions this year by 10 to 20%. And we are on pace for this. So why? Because I think people that have been on the curb the last couple of years, they finally hit their pain points of going, you know what, we have to move. We have outgrown the house. We're also at a point here where a lot of boomers are selling their house and having to move in with their kids. At home care and retirement facilities are super expensive. We're talking hundreds of thousands of dollars potentially a year depending on where you're at and that is just not feasible for most people. So we're seeing a lot more of that multigenerational living coming together. Now those homes are going to be on the more expensive side. So again selling the more inexpensive properties, the single family starter home type of stuff and then moving into million-doll homes outside the Denver metro area that can support multiple families in it.

Demographic Shift & Migration

[9:49] This is what the numbers are saying. This is what I'm feeling out there from my clients, from my own personal situation, and this is just what's happening out there, ladies and gentlemen. And I actually kind of like the trend. I think there is so much value to add by having someone that's 70 plus years old hanging out with their grandkids. And even if you don't agree politically, doesn't really matter.

[10:11] There's a different perspective on life given what they've gone through. And I think that feeds off and I think that is super beneficial. I think that's something that we're absolutely missing in our country right now is more of that perspective from our elders who do have something to teach us. Now, if you are thinking of moving here, if that's on your docket, that's why I put together this video cuz I always get asked, "Hey, what are the areas that you think are set to just explode coming up?" And that's my top list going into 2026