August 5, 2026. The Market Just Shifted: July Numbers Straight from the MLS.

Everybody is telling you something different about this market right now. Rates are up, rates are down, prices are crashing, prices are climbing. So this week I skipped the national headlines entirely and pulled the July numbers straight from the Denver MLS, the same data I run for my own clients every month. One number in there surprised me enough that I checked it three different ways. Here is what is actually happening on the Front Range.

The Metro vs the City of Denver (July, Year over Year)

Source: Denver MLS, July 2026 year over year.

The number that made me double check the data

The city of Denver is up almost 10% in median close price while 22% more homes hit the market. More supply plus higher prices is not how this is supposed to work. Here is what I think is going on: rates near 6.7% are squeezing first time buyers out of the under $500K market, while million dollar buyers, many paying cash, keep closing like nothing changed. Fewer entry level sales and steady luxury sales drag the median up. The market did not get 10% hotter. The mix of what is selling changed.

Where I think this goes by January

Every year prices arch down from summer into winter, and I think this year swings harder than usual. For the metro I expect roughly a 7% slide, which is close to the normal seasonal range. For the city of Denver, after this unusual run from $525K to $599K, I think we could see a 15% or larger adjustment back into the 520s or 530s before things push up again next year. And to be clear, this is not 2008. Foreclosures, short sales, and preforeclosures are basically nonexistent in our market, and those are the dominoes that would have to fall first.

What this means for you

If you are buying, leverage is finally on your side. Sellers are averaging 4.2 showings per listing, about one a week, so get your preapproval set and negotiate hard: seller concessions, inspection objections, the works. The payment will sting at these rates, but higher rates mean lower prices, and you can refinance a rate. If you are selling, pricing right matters more than it has in years. Buyers have six other options in their buy box, and an overpriced home does not get negotiated down anymore. It gets ignored.

Bottom line: The headline number says Denver is surging. The data underneath says the market is splitting in two, with buyers gaining real leverage heading into winter. If you have been waiting for a window, the next five months are shaping up to be it.

So here is my one question for you this week, and you can answer it by just hitting reply: are you hoping prices dip this winter so you can buy, or are you more curious what this shift means for your own home's value?

What's My Home Worth?

Market data from the Denver MLS, July 2026.