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Denver Housing Forecast

[0:00] There's a new housing forecast that is predicting that Denver prices are going to be dropping in 2026. Nearly 50% of all homes that are currently on the market in Denver are taking a price drop. And it's the beginning of December, which means November numbers are out. It's my favorite time of the month where we get to find out what actually happened in the Denver market. My name is Alex Salana. If you're new here, I've been a Denver local agent since 2010 and I like to fill you in on what's actually going on versus what the headlines are saying. So, let's start off with November numbers as we always do to really dig into it and then we're going to kind of pick apart some of these articles. So, let's start purely with supply and demand. That's what drives prices. So, what we're seeing here, new listings year-over-year, we're looking at a 5-year time frame here.

[0:43] We're down one and a half% on new listings, meaning there are less new listings to hit the market in November this year than last year. Okay, that's fine. Pretty much flat year-over-year. Active listings, now these are up 10%. So, we have 20,000 active listings in the entire Denver metro area right now that someone can buy, which is up 2,000 from [snorts] a year ago. That's a significantly higher number year-over-year, but it's kind of been on the same trend for the last 5 years or so. Pending listings. Now, what's interesting is this number is up 7 and a half% year-over-year, meaning more people are putting offers out there by quite a bit than they were last year.

Active & Pending Listings

[1:21] But closed listings is what's kind of shocking. We're actually down 10% yearover-year and how many closings are happening, which is telling me more properties are going under contract, but a lot more deals are blowing up. Whether that's because of financing or inspections, buyers being a little bit pickier right now because you can because there's options available. Days in MLS. With this, with more inventory comes longer days on the market. We're up 23 and a2% year-over-year for how many days it's taking on average to go under contract, which right now is sitting about 65. So, a little bit over two months of being on the market, meaning 3 months to actually close on average. Month supply, this keeps going up almost 10% year-over-year. Uh we're 3 and a half month supply right now, which is fairly high for this time of year being December. Now, we'll watch that coming in the next few months. Kind of see what it does. If we get closer to that five to six months months of inventory number, we're going to be in a much more stronger buyer market.

Days on Market & Inventory

[2:25] Then how many shows to go under contract? We're looking at 11 right now. And the showings per listing are at 4.2 showings per listing per month in the MLS. And then of course, what everybody wants to know, the close price. What did we do? Because we had this tick up in October, which was not super normal, but November we went down to 552. So this is for the entire Denver metro area. We are down essentially 2.2% year-over-year.

Price Analysis & Market Segments

[2:52] Last year in November, we closed it out at 565. This year 552 medium price and there is a tale of two markets here. the lowerpriced entrylevel stuff under 400,000 first-time home buyer prices are struggling even more because it is cheaper to rent right now than it is to buy at that price range where a million-doll homes, yes, we have more of them on, but you don't exactly have many motivated sellers at that price range.

[3:17] So, those are still doing fairly well, actually. So, if you're paying attention to the headlines out there, you're going to see stuff like this out there stating that Denver is going to see falling home prices and uh sales in 2026, which all I can say is it's a prediction. There's nothing is set in stone. All the predictions for 2025 have been wrong and they have a 50% chance of being right. That's my best guess right now. And so, just take it with a grain of salt. Don't make any buying or selling decisions based on this information. If rates drop, prices will go up. If rates stay the same, we'll probably stay flat. If rates go up, we'll probably drop in price. That's what it is. Until we see a lot of foreclosure, short sales on the market, like no one's in dire straits right now as a bigger societal selling pressure kind of concern. uh you know this article home prices are poised to dip in 22 US cities next year a new analysis says and this goes down stating that the entire country is going to go up a little bit but we are pegged to have a 3.4% decline in prices. Again don't know what their prediction is based off of supply and demand and interest rates and whatever. Again it's a prediction. It is what it is. What is interesting right now, because I've seen this headline a number of times, is how many homes are doing a price drop at this time of year.

Market Predictions & Outlook

[4:39] 50% of homes taking a price drop in November, blah blah blah. And we decided to pull up what the actual numbers were year-over-year. We can see 45.3% of homes in Denver did indeed do a price drop. But is that normal or is that not normal? And it looks like over the past 5 years of data this time of year it's completely normal. In fact, 2022 we were much more over 50%. Again, what makes for a good headline makes for something for you to click on and get you to read further and fear absolutely sells. What I can say is that the Denver market is going through a bit of a shift. If you're on the buy side, you have more negotiating power. If you're looking at a first-time home buyer range price, uh, you have a bit more negotiating power.

Buyer Opportunities

[5:27] There are options out there available um, at most all price ranges. So, that puts you in a good position as a buyer. If you're a seller, you have to be positioned right. You have to look right. You have to be priced right. That's the only way you're going to get your house sold. There might only be a few buyers in the next 30 to 60 days in your neighborhood. You have to check all the boxes, including price, to be the next one that's going to sell. So what's my crystal ball for the next few months, for the next year even into 2026? Well, I do think we are going to get decreasing interest rates. I think it's finally going to happen, but I don't think it's going to be drastic. Like even if we get to 5 1/2%, I will be surprised. I think we get to the high fives. I think transaction count will be up. I think there are many people who are busting at the seams uh that need to finally move. They need to bite the bullet. And so I think sales will be up, but I don't think prices are going to increase a whole lot. We might be flat, might be up a few% in some neighborhoods, might be down a few percent neighborhoods. Totally micro market. We do have a lot of inventory.

2024 Forecast Summary

[6:27] And it would take a good year or two, even if rates went up to kind of get back to those low numbers where we saw the aggressive 6 to 10% uh yearly increases uh like we did in, you know, from 2015 to 2022. And again, my name is Alex. I love talking about real estate. I talk about it all day, every day. If you want to reach out, just give me a call, shoot me a text message. I'm more than happy to talk to you. I actually answer my phone. And until the next time folks, merry Christmas and I'll see you on next week's update.